The Road Stops Here

After 21 weeks, 151 calendar days, and 266 games (because no one cares about that pre-season shit), we are finally here at the one game to end it all for the 2009 season.

For one team, all that hard work is going to pay off as they etch their name into the history books alongside the other 43 NFL Super Bowl Championship teams.

Who will it be?

Super Bowl Sunday is fun for so many reasons. The parties. The commercials (that we don't get here in Canada, which I won't get into). The gambling. And oh yeah, the game.

Speaking of the g...errr, gambling, the best part might be all the prop bets. Super Bowl Sunday is the day that you can (on gambling sites, or in Vegas, etc.) bet on all the crazy things in the Super Bowl from the coin toss to what color Gatorade will be used to shower the winning head coach. The last three years, it's been clear, or in other words...water. This year, for some reason I'm loving yellow Gatorade at +400.

Other random prop bets I love:

- Tails (-105)
- National Anthem - OVER (whatever it is)
- Will Peyton Manning throw a TD pass in 2nd Quarter? Yes (-140)
- Peyton Manning will throw a pass greater than 39 yards (+105)
- Drew Brees first pass of the game will be incomplete (+200)
- Drew Brees first rushing attempt will be over 1/2 yards (-135)
- Drew Brees will throw a 3rd quarter TD pass (+160)
- and of course there are many more

But on a more serious note...

On Sunday, a lot of questions are going to be answered, and a few questions will be left unanswered. Surely, the most prominent of unanswered questions will be where the 2009 Colts would stack up against the historical Super Bowl Champions if they win on Sunday, and if they hadn't kneeled away Weeks 16 and 17. Why would it be left unanswered? Because it can't be answered definitively.

I think that any reasonable football fan would agree that this Colts team, win or lose, is not the greatest team of all time. Even if they were chasing a perfect season this Sunday, I still would not rank them above some others. Would they have been the league's only 19-0 team in history? Obviously, yes.

However, the reality is that if the 'best team of all time' discussion comes up, the Colts don't have the 'undefeated' trump card to play. They folded that card away in Week 16.

In the end, it's about winning a championship. At least that's what the Colts organization will say.

The players feel a little bit different. Colts Pro-Bowl center Jeff Saturday has gone on record to say that the players wanted to go for the perfect season, but management did not. Of course they let their players play just long enough in Buffalo in Week 17 to register a couple 100-reception seasons for Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. There's a message...

With a win on Sunday, would Peyton Manning be regarded as the greatest quarterback of all time? We've watched Manning play at an extremely high level this year, and he continues to make his case to be regarded as the best ever. Some already have the opinion that he is the best ever.

This is why sports magazines, and columnists, and radio stations are able to do what they do because like this question, so many things in sports are debateable. We take in and digest so many opinions and stats about these kinds of debates, that sometimes we forget to just watch and enjoy the game.

People are going to tune in this weekend, and not even be watching the game, which should be great. Every time the ball is snapped, people are going to worry about how that play contributes to Manning's legacy, or the story of the New Orleans Saints, or how Archie Manning is going to 'Manning-face' to a 'Manning-face', or whatever storyline or tagline the media has attached to this game.

And there's a reason why I've waited so long in this blog entry to mention the Saints: No one is talking about them.

Sure, they are mentioning them, but I don't think that anyone is really giving New Orleans a hope in hell to win this game on Sunday. Everyone has fallen in love with the Colts because of Peyton Manning. The wiseguys in Vegas love the Colts. The public loves the Colts. Everyone loves Peyton to win a second Super Bowl MVP. Everyone thinks the game is already over before it even starts.

Everyone keeps overlooking the Saints.

I'm not going to say that I think just because people are overlooking the Saints they are going to win on Sunday. But kids, we've been here before.

Have people forgotten that a perfect season was denied by the New York Giants just two years ago in the final game of the year? Have people forgotten that team was quarterbacked by Eli Manning? Have people forgotten that the greatest scoring offense OF ALL TIME was held to just 14 points in that Super Bowl?

Believe me, people might be out there saying "I'm not saying that the Saints can't win, I just don't think they will," just so that in the event the Saints do win, they can come back and say, "Yeah, see I knew they could win." What they are really thinking, is that one football player has become so good at playing the most important position in the sport, that the other team cannot stop his team.

Think about that for a second. Football is a team game, and while Peyton Manning is so damn good that he may in fact be able to win this game dissecting the Saints on every drive, things could happen that are out of his control to change that fate.

When Asante Samuel let a sure interception slip through his hands near the sidelines in Super Bowl XLII that would have clinched a perfect season, could Tom Brady do anything about that from the bench? When the Pats defensive line had Eli Manning wrapped up for what appeared to be a sure sack, to only let him escape and heave a ball downfield that was caught by a New York Giant on his friggin' helmet, could Brady do anything about it from the sidelines?

Peyton Manning can only do what he can. He can't make his running backs hold on to the ball. He can't prevent his receivers from potentially getting stripped of balls they've caught. He can't block for himself. He can't play defence, and he can't make plays in more than one place on the field.

Try to forget about the most recent work put out there by the Saints. Forget that they are considered to be lucky to be here after getting dominated for the most part at home against the Minnesota Vikings. Try to forget the loss to Dallas. Try to forget the loss to Tampa Bay. Try to forget Mark Brunell starting Week 17.

Remember the team you've watched all season long. Remember that both of these teams faced the Patriots at home this year. One team was an inch away from losing. The other team handed out a beating.

Remember 2007 when Brett Favre threw an interception in OT of the NFC Championship game that helped set up the game-winning field goal for the New York Giants. Remember that two weeks later the Giants went on to shock the world. Remember David Tyree. Wait, don't remember him? He's the dude who caught the first touchdown pass in Super Bowl XLII, caught the famous "on the helmet" ball, and never would catch another ball for the New York Giants ever again. Remember how sometimes, history can have a funny way of repeating itself.

Lets take out the season we've watched Peyton Manning have, and just take a look at Drew Brees: 4,388 passing yards, 34 touchdown passes (1st in the NFL), 70.6 % completion percentage (1st), sacked only 20 times (behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady who played as many games), and a 109.6 passer rating (1st).

And this guy and his team have no chance to win this football game? Do you know where Drew Brees won a high school championship? In the state of Texas. At that age, it doesn't get any more pressured than that. In college, he managed to get Purdue to the Rose Bowl. (For those of us that know a thing or two about college football, the Big 10 representative in the Rose Bowl is usually Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State). And here we are, in the NFL where he's taken the New Orleans Saints to their first Super Bowl.

If you look at most of the gambling metrics that professional sports gamblers look at (which I will not get into), most of the trends are positive for the Colts and are negative for the Saints. So it's not a surprise that people are in mad love with the Colts when you take those trends and couple them with the unbeatable Peyton Manning.

But if you take a look at the football numbers, some experts (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/) would say it's 50/50 and arguably one of the closest Super Bowl matchups in recent history.

Believe me, I've been pretty open with my hate for the Colts. It's not to say that I don't respect them. They've built this team through the draft, are experienced, and have been here before. After what I've seen from Manning this year, I will say that he's the best quarterback that I've ever seen play the position, with or without this Super Bowl. And while he is playing for more than just another ring this Sunday, he can't control every inch of the game.

Anyone who has watched football this year knows that the two best teams are playing in this game on Sunday, and there's not really a point to diving into the huge number of matchup questions that cloud over this game (because I dont get paid to do so). The point I'm trying to make, is that despite all the variables that come into winning a football game, people have done what they can to simplify it to one single matchup: Saints vs. Manning.

They discount all aforementioned factors beyond quarterback control, and even the motivational factors. Do people realize what era we live in? Do people think the Saints players don't read blogs or websites? Do we think they don't know that even though the public is being polite about it, they are being given virtually no shot to win? These guys have cell phones, text, talk, read ESPN.

It's one game. It's 60 minutes. It's for everything. And so far, it's been all about one man.

Motivation for the other guy? I'd say so. And you know me. I love intangibles.


Deacon's Prediction:



The Saints are going to have to score last. It's the only way I think they can win this game. And when the whole game is on the line and a field goal won't do, and the one man that cannot be stopped is standing on the sidelines, the little guy from Dallas, TX is going to march his league-best offense down the field for the game-winning touchdown, executing the plays called by his brilliant head coach.

I believe the Saints are going to win this game. I've been wrong for almost the entire playoffs, so who gives a shit if I'm wrong now. I'm not going to pick the Colts to try and jinx them so if they win I'll at least have picked right. Fuck that. I'm not going to make excuses if I'm wrong. I'm picking the Saints, and not just because I can be 'that guy' who said I told you so by making the bold prediction, when so many others are going the other way. This wasn't based on contrarian theory kids, it's just an example of it.

If this writing was meant to do anything, it was to convince you that considering all the factors that go into a football game, such a prediction should not be considered all that bold anyway.



Super Bowl XLIV: New Orleans 34, Indianapolis 31



- Deacon Touchback