The Best Weekend of Football

Soooo, last week's picks were a bit of a train wreck. Apparently, I should stick to making picks in the regular season. If this week's picks are as brutal as last week's, then I think I may have to pack it in for the rest of the year.

First off, some thoughts from watching the games this past weekend:

- It turns out that the Bengals were the worst football team that was in the playoffs this year. The Bengals got out-coached, out-worked, and out-played by the New York Jets. Carson Palmer was horrible, the offensive play-calling looked as vanilla as it was in Week 17, and the Bengals could not make plays when they needed to. The lone bright spot was the play of Cedric Benson. Where was that kind of playoff production in the SuperBowl three years ago, Ced? Ok...I'll try not to go off on anymore Bears tangents for the rest of the post.

- Do you think that Shayne Graham has been possibly staying with his parents for the last week? If not, I'm sure he did the movie-like "call to the wife to get the kids out of the house and go to her mother's place". I'm sure he's the most hated person in that city right now. How do you miss those kicks?? A friend of mine who is a Bengals fan left me a voicemail after the game, asking me if I wanted to accompany him to Cincy to harm Graham. I didn't bring it up when I saw him later that night, but i did think to myself, "Only if we can make a pit-stop at Halas Hall..."

- Seems like playing good defence and being able to run the football actually still does count for something in the playoffs. Hmmm, I might need to stop reading Bill Simmons' columns on ESPN.com...

- Ok, so the Cowboys finally won a playoff game. Congratulations Cowboy fans. Now, I said that if they managed to win this game, then I would probably take them to end up getting to the SuperBowl. I'm still going to stand by that too. So all you fans better pray that I'm not 100% wrong like last week...

- I find it hilarious that Michael Vick played part in two of the three most important plays in the game for the Eagles. The touchdown pass to Jeremy Maclin which could have been the catalyst for a big momentum swing, IF he didn't fumble the ball the next time he was in the game on an exchange with FB Leonard Weaver. I guess he really was the X factor.

- Interestingly enough, the third play was the interception that got reversed on a great challenge by Wade Phillips. Great challenge by Wade Phillips. Sorry, I needed to type that out twice myself just to believe it.

- How about 'dem Ravens? That game was over in 5 minutes. It was a clinical beating. The Ravens are going to be a very tough out in the playoffs. They run the ball well, have two very good runningbacks, and use the play action pass very effectively. Oh, and they also go after the quarterback relentlessly and are not afraid to take penalties to send messages when they lay people out. They obviously take the personality of their leader. I'm not going to take that one where it could obviously go, so on a lighter note: Over under for 'Manning fetal position sacks' this week? Let's go 3.5.

- If anyone is still in doubt over whether or not Kurt Warner should be a first ballot hall-of-famer, then I think you're on crack. That performance on Sunday against Green Bay was unreal. Who throws more touchdowns than incompletions in a playoff game against one of the top ranked defences in the conference?? Say it out loud to yourself. He threw more touchdowns than incomplete passes. How does that happen? It seemed that he found the open receiver every single time. I absolutely love this guy.

- Speaking of receivers, I think that it's safe to say that Anquan Boldin is getting traded in the off-season. The world caught a glimpse of what the Cardinals can look like without Q, and performances like the ones they got from Steve Breaston and Early Doucet (my pick for the smoothest sounding name in the playoffs) lead one to believe that there wont necessarily be a huge dropoff in production in the passing game without him. So on one hand you like what you have in your backups if you are the Cards, but at the same time you would have loved to figure out this information without it hurting Q's trade value. Whatever, you can't win them all. Oh, and the heir apparent to this passing game is Matt Leinart...uhhhh, yeah...WIN NOW!!!

- Deacon's live play-call of the week: I might not be able to pick games, but I can sense when a kicker is going to blow a kick. When I saw Neil Rackers lined up on the right hash mark (while I was cooking on the BBQ...true story), I said to my old man who was in the room, "Dad, kicking across his body he's going to miss left." Now I didnt think Rackers was going to shank it so bad that the ball almost flew out of the left side of my TV screen, but hey, after last week's picks I'll take a win where I can get one.

- Just to make a comment on the game itself, I think that was the best playoff game I can remember watching. Honestly, how can it not be with all those points and over 1000 yards of offense? Then it goes to OT, and finished off with a defensive touchdown. By itself, it made up for all the bad that was contained in the previous three games played last weekend.

- Random final note: Aaron Rodgers was very close to ending that game on that deep pass that missed Greg Jennings in OT. Next year, he wont miss on plays like that. With that in mind, I think I'm going to bet the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC next year. Rodgers is going to get better, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley are going to have big statistical years, and despite some players on the defence likely departing (Nick Barnett; A.J. Hawk is also rumored to be moved), they will still have a very good unit on that side of the ball. Oh yeah, and they still play in the NFC North with the Bears and Lions. Not to mention, who the heck knows what's going to happen with Minnesota. They are my pick to win the NFC North next year, win 12 games, earn a first round bye as the second seed, and (due to next year's #1 seed in the NFC losing their only playoff game) winning the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field. You heard it here first...

And with bold statements come bold predictions for this week's games.

ARIZONA @ New Orleans

As of right now, Vegas is giving the Saints 7 points and I'm doing my best to figure out why. It's common knowledge that in football, the standard for the home team is 3 points right off the bat. But then we add 4 more points. If I was betting the spread in this game, I would obviously take the points with the Cardinals as I've picked them to win this game, but do the oddsmakers know something we don't?

The line leads me to believe that Anquan Boldin is going to miss this game as well with injury, and I'm not too sure if this is a trap game set by the books to entice the gambling public to start betting the Cardinals like crazy when they feel the Saints are going to roll. Either way, betting the Saints this weekend - much like trying to defend Kurt Warner properly - is a dicey proposition.

If the Saints can jump out to a substantial lead, then it might be tough for the Cards to come back. But, New Orleans hasn't played exceptional football since beating New England, and it's going to be a challenge for them to not come out flat in this game. The last thing that they want to do is turn the ball over early, and too many risks early on may backfire if that is their gameplan. Then again, playing it too safe may delay their offense from getting in sync early and putting up points. And let's face it, for either team to win this game, alot of points are needed.

It's hard to discount a team that was 13-0 at one point in the regular season, quaterbacked by one of the league's best in Drew Brees, but something about how they finished the season and losing two of their last three at home scare me a little bit. I'm going to roll with the Kurt Warner story until it dies, or meets a team that has enough talent and speed defensively to give the future hall-of-famer fits.

Arizona 34, New Orleans 30


Baltimore @ INDIANAPOLIS

Ok, so maybe because I don't particularly like the Colts, I'm taking them this week to jinx them. But let's take a look at the matchup before we pick a winner.

It goes without saying that the Colts were the best team in the regular season this year, and that is mainly due to the excellent play by Peyton Manning. I'm done taking shots at this guy because his performance speaks for itself. Watching some of the things he did this year, I'm going to have a tough time betting against the guy in a one game situation when it matters. Then again, this is the playoffs, and in those game in the playoffs, the Colts have been far from a sure thing.

It's going to be very interesting to see how Baltimore decides to pressure Manning in this game. Everybody knows that Manning is great at getting the ball out early. He rarely gets sacked, and is going to exploit the matchups in the Ravens' inferior secondary if they blitz too often. We should see alot of press coverage from the Ravens, who hope to get to Manning quickly with 3 and 4 men while their secondary tries to hold coverages. But they should also mix in some zone blitzes to try and force the Colts into some mistakes. Not only is scheme and disguise important, but when Manning goes into his no-huddle package, they better make sure that the right personnel is on the field. It's going to take an even better effort than last week from this Ravens defense and that's not going to be easy, but if the Ravens should know anything about the Colts (and this was evident when they won the Super Bowl 3 seasons ago), if you sit back and wait for Manning to beat you, he will.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens do very well to play to their strengths on offense. The Colts are undersized on defense, and the Ravens should use alot of run plays in between the tackles to minimize the impact that Dwight Freeny can have on this game. The key for the Ravens on offense will be to run the ball effectively for a number of reasons: Protecting Joe Flacco, setting up play-action pass opportunities, keeping the clock running, and leaving the Colts' offense on the sidelines for as much of the game as they can. One thing that helps the Ravens in this game is that they are ranked in the top third of the league in third-down conversion on offense, while the Colts rank 31st in the league in third-down defence. That stat is arguably the most important factor for the Ravens in this game, as it is paramount that they will be able to not only sustain long drives, but finish them off with touchdowns.

This game has the potential to be the best game of the weekend. It's a great matchup that may very well be decided on the last play of the game and picking a winner in this one is as difficult as they come. Spite pick to jinx? Possibly. But the Colts have had alot of success against the Ravens recently, and I think Baltimore is a little overmatched in the defensive passing game to keep the Colts from scoring enough points to win this game.

Indianapolis 27, Baltimore 20

DALLAS @ Minnesota

I'm not sure what it is, but I think this weekend we're going to see alot of points scored in these games, and this one should be no different. The Vikings are getting 2.5 from Vegas at home right now, and it's probably right where the line should be. This game will probably go back and forth, and should have no shortage of big plays considering the talent that both teams have in all phases of the game.

Minnesota was spinning its tires a little at the end of the season before romping the New York Giants at home in Week 17. They ought to be well-rested after getting last week off from Brad Childress, but hey, so should the Cowboys after the beatings they gave the Eagles in the past two weeks.

The battle in the trenches is going to be very interesting to watch in this game. While Minnesota boasts the better offensive line, the Cowboys front seven is big, fast, and has been playing great football in recent weeks. On the other side, Dallas will have its hands full with DT Jared Allen in pass protection. Dallas LT Flozel Adams is probably the weakest link on the Dallas offensive line, and Dallas will probably call alot of run plays to the left side to keep Allen in run defence where he may get worn down and become less effective.

Both offenses have alot of weapons to work with, and is why I think there will be alot of points scored in this one too. Not to mention that in the special teams game, Percy Harvin and Patrick Crayton both have multiple touchdown returns this season.

The Cowboys are red hot right now, and when big and talented teams catch fire and gain confidence, watch out. But the Vikings and the power of the old man will have something to say about that while trying to protect their home field.

I'm rolling with the Cowboys not only because I said I would, but because I believe they are playing the best football of any team in the league right now, and are a bad matchup for the Vikings.

Dallas 33, Minnesota 27

New York Jets @ SAN DIEGO

As interesting as this matchup is because of the contrasting styles of play, I think this game might actually turn out to be the worst of the four games this week, and not just because the Jets play ugly football. There has been alot of talk in the media by Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan about them getting to the Super Bowl and blah blah blah, but I think that San Diego has too much in the passing game for them to handle.

They are faced with the task of heading into San Diego and stopping a lethal air attack with multiple weapons. The Jets will probably have a pretty simple game plan on Sunday: Run the ball and keep the San Diego passing game in check. The latter is easier said than done. All-Pro CB Darelle Revis will matchup against Pro-bowl WR Vincent Jackson, leaving the rest of San Diego's receivers with the responsibility of picking up the slack. WRs Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are going to have to step up and make plays when Jackson is marooned on Revis island.

San Diego TE Antonio Gates figures to be the X factor in the passing game, as he is a matchup nightmare for linebackers and safeties because of his size, speed, and athleticism. It's going to be a challenge for QB Phillip Rivers to connect with Jackson on many vertical routes, so sending him in crossing patterns in the middle of the field might open things up for Gates to work on smaller safeties and slower linebackers in the flats, especially when the Jets decide to blitz. But don't think that the Chargers are going to all of a sudden stop taking shots down the field. Don't be surprised if Rivers and Jackson still connect on a play or two deep because there is no better deep-ball conncection in tight coverage than Rivers to Jackson.

I think the Jets can keep this game close early on but are not going to do enough offensively to ever pull away and put pressure on San Diego by getting ahead.

San Diego 27, New York 20


That's it folks! I hope everyone enjoys the best weekend of the year in the NFL season. I wanna end this week's post with a shout out to my boy who is moving back home this weekend from the west coast.

Welcome home Sagres.

- Deacon Touchback