Divisional Weekend Part 1

As I wrote yesterday, there were 5 main stories or themes that dominated most of the talk of the season this year. I may have left out a few (Michael Vick, Andre Johnson becoming the second player in NFL history to notch back to back seasons with 1500+ receiving yards, the utter stupidity of Washington Redskins head coach Jim Zorn, and the large number of really crappy football teams this year) but those were the ones that seemed to jump out.

Similarly, the upcoming playoff games this weekend are not without their share of storylines or themes, and here’s what people should be following or paying attention to. Aside from the games themselves, of course.

Rematches from Week 17 – For the first time in my life, three of the four first round playoff matchups are repeats of games played the week before. Green Bay travels to Arizona for the second straight week, and Philadelphia heads out to Dallas for another showdown in Texas stadium. The only difference between the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals matchup is that this week’s tilt will be in Ohio. It’s an intriguing dynamic that’s added to this year’s playoffs because in two of those three matchups from last week, the Bengals and Cardinals really had nothing to play for. It will be interesting to see what effect this will have on these teams in the one-and-done format of the playoffs and add fuel to the fire on whether or not it’s really worth it to rest players in the closing weeks of the season.

Baby, it’s … not cold…Outside? – Looking ahead to next week’s games, weather should not be a factor. I say ‘should’ because I don’t really anticipate bad weather in San Diego next week, and all three other games will be played inside domes (Indianapolis, Minnesota, and New Orleans all will play at home in their dome stadiums). Teams with home field advantages in this year’s playoffs will be without any kind of relative weather advantage which can be argued as a good or bad thing. 4 out of the 6 NFC playoff teams reside in dome stadiums compared to just 1 (Indianapolis) out of 6 in the AFC. As it looks right now, weather probably will not be a factor in playoff matchups past this week, unless we see an upset or two next week in the AFC.

The Great Potential Injury Debate – Before last week’s games, the majority of this paragraph would have probably just talked about the Indianapolis Colts and their strategy to rest their players in the last two weeks of the season and blow a chance at a perfect season. And then, some people got hurt last week in meaningless games…

Last week in Houston, New England WR Wes Welker, who many refer to as the heart and soul of their offense, suffered a knee injury on their first drive of the game. Welker caught his first and only pass of the game and tore the MCL and ACL in his left knee while trying to make a cut in the open field and will miss the remainder of the season.

Later in the day in Arizona, Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin suffered a left ankle sprain and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie left the game with a bruised left knee cap. Rodgers-Cromartie returned to practice yesterday, but Boldin remained sidelined. It is unknown whether or not Boldin will play, but knowing how much of a warrior he is, I think he’ll be in there. Either way, these injuries may hamper both players this week in the game that actually matters.

Even Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco managed to tweak his knee in pregame warmups and did not play in the second half of their game against the New York Jets. An MRI came back negative on Monday, and the only thing that is probably hurting Chad is his ego after getting shut down by Jets DB Darelle Revis.

When all is said and done, there will be some evidence as to whether or not it really is in the best interest of teams to sacrifice some of their ‘groove’ late in the season in meaningless games when heading into the playoffs in exchange for peace of mind by resting key players and limiting injury risk.

Super Bowl Crown Leaving Steel Town – Finally, with the Pittsburgh Steelers failing to make the playoffs this year, their title defence was cut short of the post-season this year, and the NFL will see a new champion this season. What remains to be seen of course, is who the new champion will be. But, we’ll know in 5 short weeks.

And so…On to the picks. Picks based on intangibles and gut feeling? You betcha! Heck, it’s how I won the NFL picks pool I was in. No sense in stopping now, right?


CINCINATTI over New York

My good friends who are Bengals fans should love me for this pick, but it probably will be the last time I take the Bengals to win this year. That’s either because they will lose this game and not be around to pick again, or they win and run into the Indianapolis Colts’ buzz saw next week. Either way, let’s do this one last time Bengals!

I know that because they are a team from New York getting a lot of buzz in the media and find themselves in the post-season after beating the second teams of both the Colts and Bengals, most people are going to pick the Jets in this game. But people are quick to forget that this team has ended off the season with Carolina (the last we saw of Jake Delhomme and his 4-INT performances), Buffalo (6-10), Atlanta (which they lost at home and only scored 7 points), and the backups as previously mentioned.
What is it that is so enticing about this team to go on the road, with a rookie QB, in cold climate (which their QB obviously is struggling with)? I honestly have no idea. They may have the league’s best defence, but they will need to make plays in the passing game to win. I’m not so sure that they will be able to. Let’s not forget that the Bengals have a pretty good defence as well. Their plan will be simple, and similar to that of the Atlanta Falcons in Week 14: Stop the run and make Mark Sanchez beat them.

He wont.

Bengals 19, Jets 13


PHILADELPHIA over Dallas

I know a few people that are not going to like this pick, but I’ve been wrong before. If you’re looking for an intangible pick, then here it comes.

There is probably no team (aside from the San Diego Chargers) that is playing as well as the Dallas Cowboys are right now. This is a team that ended the perfect season of the New Orleans Saints, had their way with the NFC East’s ragdoll (Washington), and beat the Eagles last week to win the division! Not to mention, those last two wins were shutouts (the first time the team ever has recorded back-to-back shutouts).

So why am I picking against them? Because this is typical ‘switcheroo’ type stuff. Wade Phillips probably threw everything at the Eagles last week to win, and now Andy Reid is sitting in his office thinking, “I’ve got you now, idiot.” Plus, aren’t the Cowboys perfectly setting their fans up for another playoff disappointment? I say, Aye!

Are they Cowboys more talented? Yep. Are they playing better? Yep. Are they a better team? I’ve been convinced that they are.

The problem is that the Eagles are the worst kind of matchup for the Cowboys. Their big-play ability is what can put them up early putting even more pressure on the hometown ‘Boys. But, it will win them this game or be their kryptonite. If the Eagles get hot, watch out. If they don’t, this game will probably be over early like last week.

Plus, the Eagles typically have games like last week, but then follow them up with solid efforts the week after, which tends to follow the play of their QB Donovan McNabb. Their blunder this year? A loss in Oakland, who played spoiler to many teams this year. Sure, the Redskins the following week would have cured a lot of things for a lot of teams, but the big win came in a 40-17 beating of the Giants two weeks after the bad loss to the Raiders. And remember what happened last year after the famous tie against the Bengals? Right, they squeak into the playoffs and end up in the NFC Championship game almost coming back to beat Arizona.

This team goes up and down. Last week they were down. Guess where they’ll be this week?

They’ve been here before. They know what’s at stake. They know how to win these games. If we look at recent history, the Cowboys know how to lose these games, not win them. We’ve all been waiting for something to go wrong for the Cowboys since signing former Washington place kicker Shaun Suisham, too. It hasn’t happened yet. Yet..

There is too much pressure on the Cowboys. Too much pressure on the QB, coach, city, organization. And two nights after the state of Texas watched the University of Texas lose in the National Championship to the Alabama Crimson Tide, so too will they watch their beloved Cowboys end their season prematurely yet again.

Then again, I think if they win this game they take this show all the way to the Super Bowl. I just don’t think they do.

And that’s how I’m making this pick. Oh, and if I’m right, Cowboy fans should not be too sad. Rumor has it that if they lose that’s the final straw for Wade Phillips and they are courting Tennessee Head Coach Jeff Fischer. Dude, in the NFL coaching world, that’s like upgrading from a Honda to a BMW.

Eagles 31, Cowboys 27


NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore

The big story in this game is how the Patriots are going to be able to deal with the loss of WR Wes Welker. At first glance, most people will think that this is going to completely hault the offence because the Ravens will double team Randy Moss and make Welker’s backup (Julian Edelman, aka Mini-Welker) beat them. In reality, aside from experience and little bit of grit, the Patriots are not losing too much in terms of production. And we all know that Tom Brady spent a lot of time this week getting on the same page with Edelman.

I’m picking the Patriots for two reasons, and I know I’m ignoring that the Ravens probably should have beaten the Patriots earlier in the year.

The first reason is because the Ravens have a young QB and are on the road in the playoffs. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco started out the year red hot but has cooled off in the second half of the season. Yes, his WRs dropped some pretty catchable balls (Ok, VERY catchable balls) but the Ravens are not a passing team. I know this, which means the Patriots know this, and if you’ve watched football for the last 10 years, you know that New England coach Bill Belichek does one thing all the time: He takes what you do well, stops it, and makes you beat his team another way. Either you can beat the Patriots with your left hand (or right hand if you’re left-handed…), or you lose. Simple.

One idea that people have to get out of their minds is the idea that goes, “to be a good team in this league you need to be able to play good defence and be able to run the football”. Uhhh look at which teams are the top seeds in each conference…Indianapolis and San Diego in the AFC: Both can’t run the ball effectively and are not exactly great on defence. New Orleans and Minnesota in the NFC: Both have been getting good play from their defences but both have had their struggles with running the football and play their best when they are passing the ball well. I’m not trying to lump all 4 of these teams into one category, but they all have one thing in common: They all have Pro Bowl QBs and very good passing games.

Guess who has another one of those Pro Bowl QBs in this game? I’ll give you one guess, and it’s not Baltimore.

Finally, the matchup combined with heading on the road does not bode well for the Ravens. Home field isn’t really much of an advantage anymore in the “Buisiness Suite Stadium/Plasma TV Era” of sports, but New England has Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and a coach that loves to throw the ball against a team whose weakness defensively is in the passing game. Oh, and take a look at recent history. The Patriots are never an easy out in the playoffs. They have either missed the playoffs, won the Super Bowl, or have lost because of great comebacks triggered by questionable officiating (See Colts 2006) or miraculous circus catches on the helmet by players who get cut by their teams the following season (See Giants 2007).

Patriots 27, Ravens 20


GREEN BAY over Arizona

Another upset pick in the NFC! How cheeky of me?

My pick here is pretty simple. Remember after the Packers got killed by Minnesota earlier in the year and everyone (including myself) wrote them off and forgot about them? Well this team has turned it around in a big way. The offense is clicking on all cylinders, and the defence has been playing lights out, particularly in the secondary.
I’m not completely writing off Arizona, but they played in such a weak division this year that they haven’t really had anything to play for in the last five weeks. That is either a really bad thing or a good thing if they’ve been able to get some rest and work some kinks out before the playoffs, but if last week’s loss to the Packers was any indication of which of those two it is, I think it’s the former.

Oh, and for my intangible portion to this pick, it’s obvious (but hinges on a Philadelphia win and is part of the reason why I pick the Eagles to beat Dallas). Don’t you think that the NFL would love a matchup next week between the Packers and the Vikings Pt III? The Old Man vs. Green Bay to get to the NFC Championship? The Packers with a chance for revenge. Brett Favre with a chance to stick it to Green Bay for the third time in one season? I can picture it now. The Vikings get a week off from the head coach, then watch the Eagles and Packers win to then realize…Oh crap! We only have one week to prepare for Favre Revenge!!! The entire world would stop in Green Bay until the game was played. You can’t script what kind of story this would be.

Packers 27, Cardinals 24

- Deacon Touchback