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Friday, October 2, 2009

Week Four Picks

Three weeks in and I've gone 12-4 in each of the three weeks. Not too shabby. I can't see it continuing, and that's not just because there's only 14 games this week. In any event, this week's going to be very interesting, and if you thought I made picks based on intangibles last week, read on...

Season Record: 36-12

(Teams on their Bye Week: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia)


Detroit @ CHICAGO - I don't think I need to justify this pick. If it comes back to bite me in the ass, then so be it. I'm not that much of a homer, even though I've picked the Bears to win every week this year. Ok fine, I am that much of a homer. Either way, the Lions are not coming into Chicago and winning this week.

CINCINATTI @ Cleveland - Initially, I made this pick in about 0.34 seconds. Then I thought twice about the decision. Typically when these two teams meet, it is a high-scoring, toilet-bowl type of game. This time around, the Browns are still crap, but the Bengals aren't. Did I actually say that just now? Also, Browns' coach Eric Mangini is playing his last card and going to Derek Anderson at quarterback. Anyone know who their third quarterback is? Neither do I...Anyways, one thing is different about this Bengals team as opposed to years past -- the defense is actually good. Tough to imagine isn't it? Yeah, I know. Still, I'm going with the Bengals, who actually should be 3-0. Yeah, I actually said that too.

Oakland @ HOUSTON - So I've called every Houston game wrong so far. If I get this week's game wrong against the Raiders, then I have nothing more to say. JaMarcus Russell is completely terrible. How do you pass for 61 yards in a football game? Can someone please explain that to me? The scary thing about this game is that Houston's defence is so bad that this game might actually be close. Not to mention, they still haven't won a game at home yet. Still, I'm not betting on Ja-Moron.

Seattle @ INDIANAPOLIS - The Colts appear to be in typical early-season form. I came out in this week's preachment and called Jim Mora Jr. "classless" for what he said in the post-game after losing at home to the Bears. I stand by that comment, and truly beleive that is going to lead to some accountability issues in the Seattle dressing room. Couple that with injury problems at quarterback, on the offensive line, and in the secondary and you're already facing an uphill battle. Not to mention, this is a road game where you are heading into Indianapolis to face Peyton Manning. I don't think I can drink enough booze to make me pick the Seahawks this week.

TENNESSEE @ Jacksonville - I dont care what happened in Houston last week, but Jacksonville still sucks. I am simply betting the law of averages here. I don't think that Tennessee is going to go 0-4. No analysis, no game film, nothing. Law. Of. Averages.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ Kansas City - If you saw what the Philly defensive line did to Matt Cassell, then I'm sure you can imagine what's going to happen this week against the Giants. On the bright side, the Chiefs will get to play Washington this year...then again they lost to the Raiders...Wake me up when the Chiefs are worth talking about.

Baltimore @ NEW ENGLAND - This will be one of the week's best games (I hope). 3-0 Baltimore travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the Patriots, and will be their toughest test to date. I've been calling the Ravens the best team in the NFL right now, but I'm going to take that back until after this game. If they win this game, road wins at San Diego and New England in two consecutive weeks will impress me alot and convince me that they are the best at that point. But something in my gut tells me that the Patriots are going to find a way to win this game.

Tampa Bay @ WASHINGTON - First of all, who cares? Second of all, fire Jim Zorn. Third of all, I don't like quarterbacks making their first career NFL start against good defences on the road. For how bad the Redskins have played thusfar, this pick makes no sense. Remember kids, most times in the NFL, things don't make sense.

Buffalo @ MIAMI - Contrary to the above, the Miami Dolphins have a quarterback (Chad Henne) making his first start but at home! Plus, the Buffalo defence is not spectacular and even lost DB Leodis McKelvin for the season. Hey, and it's not like the Dolphins didn't know that Henne was going to get in there at some point this year anyways. They knew this was coming, only it came a little faster. I have a feeling that just because the Dolphins are 0-3, alot of people are going to write them off this week. When you write a team off who is playing at home, you'd be surprised what that does to their moxy, especially when you add a quarterback change to the mix (which is for the best in the long run). Oh, and the annual Terrell Owens circus is in mid-season form.

New York Jets @ NEW ORLEANS - One of these teams has to lose, and I guess we'll just have to wait and see what wins in this game - explosive offense or punishing defence. This game is going to be one of the most split games this week in terms of picking the winner. I literally tossed a coin here. If I get this pick wrong I might have to go see a doctor after last week's New Orleans pick.

DALLAS @ Denver - This game is going to be interesting. After starting 3-0, the Broncos are definitely going to be playing with alot of confidence at home on Sunday. For Dallas, this will be their first half-competitive road test on the year, after beating up on the Bucs in Week One. The Cowboys might be a little dinged up in the backfield right now, but after the miracle play in Week One, the Browns, and Raiders, I think the Broncos come back down to earth a little after this weekend.

St. Louis @ SAN FRANCISCO - If it wasn't for Brett Favre heroics last week, the 49ers would be 3-0. I'm pretty sure they are pissed off. Have you seen the look on Mike Singletary's face when he gets pissed off? Have you? Now, they get the Rams at home this week, who are starting Kyle Boller at quarterback. Boller might as well be throwing to the Deacon right now with who they have lined up at WR. Don't think twice -- Take the Niners.

SAN DIEGO @ Pittsburgh - I changed this pick at the last minute, seconds before I typed this out. Why? I truly believe that this Steelers' team is a completely different team without Troy Polamalu. I don't know what it is. Actually, I know what it is, but this team has too many problems to have to figure out how to make up for not having Polamalu in the lineup. Where are the Steelers weak right now because of it? Where does Phillip Rivers and San Diego excel as of late? I know it's hard to pick against the defending champs for 3 weeks in a row, but here we are.

GREEN BAY @ Minnesota - Two road teams this week in prime time??? I must be crazy, but I told you about the intagibles...If anyone thinks that Brett Favre came back to play football this year for reasons other than "Getting a chance to stick it to the Packers", then I'm not sure what to say. If he wanted to play football, then he could have stayed in New York. This is -- and always has been -- about him being able to play against the Packers. When he signed with the Vikings, you can bet October 5th was circled on his calendar, and he'd roll his hillbilly ass (I love saying that) out there in a wheelchair to play if he had to. This is a huge game, for a ton of reasons. The Vikings are 3-0 and the Packers are 2-1. After their bye next week, the Packers host Detroit and head to Cleveland (both very winnable games) before hosting the Vikings at (deepen voice) Lammmmbeau Fielddddd. It's hard not to look forward to that game, even if I hate both of these teams. Then I thought to myself, "How can that game get any bigger than it already is?" All I came up with was: The Packers strike the first blow in Round One.


- Deacon Touchback

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Deacon's Post-Week Preachment (Week 3)

I think this week was the 'Week of the Injury' or the 'Week of Identity'. In many cases, teams were either getting hit hard with injuries, or they were finally realizing who they are.

In the NFL, coaches love to split up the season into quarters, and after this week most teams (aside from those who are on byes this week) will have reached the end of the first quarter.

After the end of the first quarter in the NFL season, most teams should have a good idea of where they stand in the league. You should be able to describe most teams in about six or seven words. For example, take the Oakland Raiders; Terrible quarterback, senile owner, above average talent. See how easy that is?

But some teams are still trying to find their identity, like Carolina. I have no idea what to think about this team. Here's a team that I knew would regress from last year's 12-4 season, but I can't really describe them. Honestly, I don't really think they can either and if a team doesn't know who they are, or does not have an identity, much like other businesses, they will fail.

Right now, there's quite a few failures out there.

Without futher delay, this week's preachment:



- I thought the Browns would put up a better fight against the Ravens, but I was wrong. The Ravens look like the best team in the NFL right now, even if two of those wins came against the Chiefs and the Browns.

- This year's most improbable 3-0 team has to be the New York Jets. At the beginning of the season, I don't think there was anyone out there (including the Jets) who thought they would be 3-0. Conversely, the Tennesee Titans are 0-3, and are better than their records suggests, but I dont think by much?

- Speaking of 3-0, the New York Giants rolled the Bucs to remain perfect, and Byron Leftwich has again lost a starting quarterback gig. No surprises there.

- Greg Jennings was found this past week after disappearing in Week Two without a single catch. I'm not sure what was more surprising, that or the fact that St. Louis scored 17 points.

- No McNabb? No Westbrook? No problem. I think Kansas City would have even lost to Penn State this week.

- What do the Patriots love to do? Take away your best weapon. In the passing game for the Falcons, that's Tony Gonzalez. The Pats held him in check and controlled most of the game. The Falcons were not able to get much pressure on the quarterback either, and when Brady gets 5 seconds to throw the ball, that's not a good thing.

- Damn Brett Favre and his comeback heroics! I was really ticked off when I saw that last play, and didn't need a replay to know that it was a touchdown. How sad is it that one of the most memorable moments in his career will be when he was wearing purple? My hate for him grows.

- Ok, so your starting running back is looking good in the fourth quarter, you're down by seven inside the goal-line, and you bring in your backup to run the ball? If you're Gary Kubiak, you have to leave Steve Slaton in the game to run that ball, or put the ball in the hands of Matt Schaub. What happens? Chris Brown fumbles at the goal-line. The Texans give me a headache.

- Finally the losing streak ends. I was really hoping it was going to continue, but then I became overwhlemed with 'I wonder if they will fire Zorn on the plane' thoughts. Then I realized that at this point in the season, while he is definitely on the hot seat, he wont get fired until the season is completely lost. Apaprently the Redskins still think that the season can be salvaged and that they can't axe him yet. I think losing to the Lions is good enough, but what do I know? On a side note, I think they are still partying in Detroit.

- Thank you New Orleans, thank you.

- While we're on thank you's, I'd like to thank Olindo Mare for his efforts this week. Also, I'd like to add that Jim Mora Jr's comments after the game - essentially tossing his kicker under the bus - were extremely classless. I'm sure the guy feels bad enough, and they make it seem like TJ's fumble or the other costly turnover they had didn't matter. Or the fact that they couldn't generate touchdowns inside the red zone. I'm starting to think that there's something there that explains why his old man didn't win anything as a coach either...

- Oh how the Steelers miss Troy Polamalu...

- I hate to see it happen due to an injury, but I told everyone that the Chad Henne era was about to begin in Miami. I feel really bad for Chad Pennington to be honest. I'm sure he'll become a really good coach or something though, because I think his playing days are over.

- I'm not going to go into too much depth here but JaMarcus Russell may be the worst top 10 pick of all time. He has actually managed to get worse in the last three years. It's disguting to watch him play, and I'm not even a Raiders fan. How do you toss for 61 yards? Also, how the hell are the Broncos 3-0?

- What can't you do in the first half of a game against a team like the Colts? How about two turnovers in the red zone? That game would have been 21-17 possibly at half-time, but instead, that game was over after two quarters. The Colts look good early on as per usual, and we'll see if they can keep it up. I'm thinking they will.

- After the Monday Night Football game, we know a couple things. One, the Coybows are a pretty good team and the Panthers aren't. Two, the Cowboys need to be a run first team with the runningbacks they have, which will make life easier on Tony Romo and provide more consistent production out of him. Three, the Panthers are officially in shambles, and are one of those teams who can't figure out their identity. Four, Wade Phillips is still an idiot. Five, Jerry Jones s a visionary for pretty much having the equivalent of cage dancers in the new stadium. Thank you, Jerry. Thank you.



- Deacon Touchback