Week Four Picks

Three weeks in and I've gone 12-4 in each of the three weeks. Not too shabby. I can't see it continuing, and that's not just because there's only 14 games this week. In any event, this week's going to be very interesting, and if you thought I made picks based on intangibles last week, read on...

Season Record: 36-12

(Teams on their Bye Week: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia)


Detroit @ CHICAGO - I don't think I need to justify this pick. If it comes back to bite me in the ass, then so be it. I'm not that much of a homer, even though I've picked the Bears to win every week this year. Ok fine, I am that much of a homer. Either way, the Lions are not coming into Chicago and winning this week.

CINCINATTI @ Cleveland - Initially, I made this pick in about 0.34 seconds. Then I thought twice about the decision. Typically when these two teams meet, it is a high-scoring, toilet-bowl type of game. This time around, the Browns are still crap, but the Bengals aren't. Did I actually say that just now? Also, Browns' coach Eric Mangini is playing his last card and going to Derek Anderson at quarterback. Anyone know who their third quarterback is? Neither do I...Anyways, one thing is different about this Bengals team as opposed to years past -- the defense is actually good. Tough to imagine isn't it? Yeah, I know. Still, I'm going with the Bengals, who actually should be 3-0. Yeah, I actually said that too.

Oakland @ HOUSTON - So I've called every Houston game wrong so far. If I get this week's game wrong against the Raiders, then I have nothing more to say. JaMarcus Russell is completely terrible. How do you pass for 61 yards in a football game? Can someone please explain that to me? The scary thing about this game is that Houston's defence is so bad that this game might actually be close. Not to mention, they still haven't won a game at home yet. Still, I'm not betting on Ja-Moron.

Seattle @ INDIANAPOLIS - The Colts appear to be in typical early-season form. I came out in this week's preachment and called Jim Mora Jr. "classless" for what he said in the post-game after losing at home to the Bears. I stand by that comment, and truly beleive that is going to lead to some accountability issues in the Seattle dressing room. Couple that with injury problems at quarterback, on the offensive line, and in the secondary and you're already facing an uphill battle. Not to mention, this is a road game where you are heading into Indianapolis to face Peyton Manning. I don't think I can drink enough booze to make me pick the Seahawks this week.

TENNESSEE @ Jacksonville - I dont care what happened in Houston last week, but Jacksonville still sucks. I am simply betting the law of averages here. I don't think that Tennessee is going to go 0-4. No analysis, no game film, nothing. Law. Of. Averages.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ Kansas City - If you saw what the Philly defensive line did to Matt Cassell, then I'm sure you can imagine what's going to happen this week against the Giants. On the bright side, the Chiefs will get to play Washington this year...then again they lost to the Raiders...Wake me up when the Chiefs are worth talking about.

Baltimore @ NEW ENGLAND - This will be one of the week's best games (I hope). 3-0 Baltimore travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the Patriots, and will be their toughest test to date. I've been calling the Ravens the best team in the NFL right now, but I'm going to take that back until after this game. If they win this game, road wins at San Diego and New England in two consecutive weeks will impress me alot and convince me that they are the best at that point. But something in my gut tells me that the Patriots are going to find a way to win this game.

Tampa Bay @ WASHINGTON - First of all, who cares? Second of all, fire Jim Zorn. Third of all, I don't like quarterbacks making their first career NFL start against good defences on the road. For how bad the Redskins have played thusfar, this pick makes no sense. Remember kids, most times in the NFL, things don't make sense.

Buffalo @ MIAMI - Contrary to the above, the Miami Dolphins have a quarterback (Chad Henne) making his first start but at home! Plus, the Buffalo defence is not spectacular and even lost DB Leodis McKelvin for the season. Hey, and it's not like the Dolphins didn't know that Henne was going to get in there at some point this year anyways. They knew this was coming, only it came a little faster. I have a feeling that just because the Dolphins are 0-3, alot of people are going to write them off this week. When you write a team off who is playing at home, you'd be surprised what that does to their moxy, especially when you add a quarterback change to the mix (which is for the best in the long run). Oh, and the annual Terrell Owens circus is in mid-season form.

New York Jets @ NEW ORLEANS - One of these teams has to lose, and I guess we'll just have to wait and see what wins in this game - explosive offense or punishing defence. This game is going to be one of the most split games this week in terms of picking the winner. I literally tossed a coin here. If I get this pick wrong I might have to go see a doctor after last week's New Orleans pick.

DALLAS @ Denver - This game is going to be interesting. After starting 3-0, the Broncos are definitely going to be playing with alot of confidence at home on Sunday. For Dallas, this will be their first half-competitive road test on the year, after beating up on the Bucs in Week One. The Cowboys might be a little dinged up in the backfield right now, but after the miracle play in Week One, the Browns, and Raiders, I think the Broncos come back down to earth a little after this weekend.

St. Louis @ SAN FRANCISCO - If it wasn't for Brett Favre heroics last week, the 49ers would be 3-0. I'm pretty sure they are pissed off. Have you seen the look on Mike Singletary's face when he gets pissed off? Have you? Now, they get the Rams at home this week, who are starting Kyle Boller at quarterback. Boller might as well be throwing to the Deacon right now with who they have lined up at WR. Don't think twice -- Take the Niners.

SAN DIEGO @ Pittsburgh - I changed this pick at the last minute, seconds before I typed this out. Why? I truly believe that this Steelers' team is a completely different team without Troy Polamalu. I don't know what it is. Actually, I know what it is, but this team has too many problems to have to figure out how to make up for not having Polamalu in the lineup. Where are the Steelers weak right now because of it? Where does Phillip Rivers and San Diego excel as of late? I know it's hard to pick against the defending champs for 3 weeks in a row, but here we are.

GREEN BAY @ Minnesota - Two road teams this week in prime time??? I must be crazy, but I told you about the intagibles...If anyone thinks that Brett Favre came back to play football this year for reasons other than "Getting a chance to stick it to the Packers", then I'm not sure what to say. If he wanted to play football, then he could have stayed in New York. This is -- and always has been -- about him being able to play against the Packers. When he signed with the Vikings, you can bet October 5th was circled on his calendar, and he'd roll his hillbilly ass (I love saying that) out there in a wheelchair to play if he had to. This is a huge game, for a ton of reasons. The Vikings are 3-0 and the Packers are 2-1. After their bye next week, the Packers host Detroit and head to Cleveland (both very winnable games) before hosting the Vikings at (deepen voice) Lammmmbeau Fielddddd. It's hard not to look forward to that game, even if I hate both of these teams. Then I thought to myself, "How can that game get any bigger than it already is?" All I came up with was: The Packers strike the first blow in Round One.


- Deacon Touchback