Week Three Picks

It has been a good start to the season with a 24-8 record, but things can change fast with one bad week of picks. There are a good handful of games this week where I've heard alot of arguments for both teams in a matchup, and there are others that appear to be no-brainers. Then again, Green Bay over the Bengals at home was a no brainer last week right? Wrong...Wrong!

Season record after Week Two: 24-8


Week Three picks in CAPS:



Cleveland @ BALTIMORE - I'm not too sure what people think here, but the Browns are not going into Baltimore and stealing a game this week. This is an important division matchup and rivalry game, and the Ravens are a tough, physical, disciplined team who all of a sudden has a nice offense too. The Ravens may not cover the spread, but they should win this game just fine.

WASHINGTON @ Detroit - Look, I know that this is where I'm supposed to back my 'Fire Jim Zorn' talk but, I just can't pick the Lions to win a game, even at home, even against a struggling Redskins team. I know they eventually have to win a game, and I know that this is the 'sexy pick' that everyone is making this week, but when everyone looks one way, I tend to go the other. I have no better reason for this pick, and to be quite honest, this picks scares me. (Fantasy Football side note: Jason Hanson may be a sneaky Kicker spot play in fantasy leagues if he's available...keep it in mind)

Jacksonville @ HOUSTON - Ok, so last week no one saw the Texans coming and they go into Tennessee and win an old fashioned shootout. This week people are on them and what am I supposed to think? Well in Week One they played a much improved Jets team, and lost at home, and we saw what happened last week. Jacksonville has not really done much to inspire me this year, and Houston should give a much better second effort at home this week. Plus, Rashean Mathis is not going to blanket Andre Johnson ala Darelle Revis in Week One. I'm taking the Texans to grab a share of the division lead.

Atlanta @ NEW ENGLAND - New England has not had a losing streak since 2006. That it all I've got here. Then again, Matt Ryan is probably one of the few quarterbacks that could shock New England and snap that 'no losing streak' trend. Oh, and Wes Welker is a game-time decision...Hmmm, if he doesn't play I might want to change this pick...

GREEN BAY @ St. Louis - As bad as the Packers are at protecting Aaron Rodgers, the Rams are worse at protecting Marc Bulger. Give the ball to Steven Jackson St. Louis! It's the only chance you have!

NEW YORK GIANTS @ Tampa Bay - If I told you that the Bucs ranked 4th in total offense (yards per game) you'd probably laugh. Well, laugh or not - it's the truth. The Giants lost Kenny Phillips to a season-ending injury, so he'll have more time to sign helmets while he recovers (for those who watch the NFL Network, you know what I'm talking about). I think the Giants are better at almost every single position, including WR (with Antonio Bryant still sidelined). Yeah, I can't take the Bucs.

Tennessee @ NEW YORK JETS - Ok, so I've picked against the Jets twice now and they've burned me twice, so that probably means that this week I get this pick wrong. But, just like the pick above keeping the 'Doormat Losing Streak' alive for another week, I'm going against most and taking the Jets. Yes, they are ripe for a letdown after that huge win against the Patriots last week. Yes, the Titans lost last week due to some mental errors that are correctable. Yes, the Titans are a talented team who is desperate for a win this week. Yes, I've heard about the 'tendonitis' reports in Mark Sanchez's knee. But you know what, they are still at home, they have fans excited, that defence is that good, and I'm still taking the Jets. Because if they can stop the run like they do, and get after the quarterback like they do, then considering what they made Matt Schaub and Tom Brady look like...you know where I'm going with this...Yeah, after this week the Jets may actually drive Kerry Collins back to the bottle...

Kansas City @ PHILADELPHIA- The Chiefs lost at home last week thanks to a fourth quarter 80 yard game-winning drive led by JaMarcus Russell. If that's not a confidence killer, I have no idea what is. It's still early in the season, but the Chiefs are in ultimate 'clean house' mode right now, and taking that circus on the road to Philly just screams trouble.

San Francisco @ MINNESOTA - Once again, I know that I've been really pimping the Niners lately, and they are looking like a good team right now. But something tells me that if I take them, I'll be off. I tried to think about the even matchup here, and then I realized that (as much as it pains me to say it) Minnesota may have the best player in the league on their team (and no, Sports Illustrated, I'm not talking about Brett Favre). In games like this, at home, that matters. It could also very well be the difference. (Fantasy Football side note: I like Joe Nedney to blast two 50+ yard FGs this week in the dome...just a prediction)

NEW ORLEANS @ Buffalo - See what I mean about all these tough picks? I really want to take the Bills this week. I really do. Buffalo should be 2-0, are playing good football, and Ralph Wilson Stadium is a tough place to play. That being said...there's not much in Buffalo to distract visiting teams from coming in and taking care of business, and New Orleans is scoring more points than I could score with the Cowboys playing a game of Tecmo Bowl...I just can't bet against that offense right now. Buffalo is like that smart chick in high school that no one really noticed until grad. Then all of a sudden you're like, WHOA! New Orleans is the easy chick who was always hot for as long as you knew her. Then one night when you're drunk at the bar when they are both there and you can't decide who to try and hit on. Then you just assume that you've got a better chance with the proven track record. Then you wake up next morning with herpes. New Orleans, please don't have herpes...

CHICAGO @ Seattle - Seahawks can fly over bears, so it would be tough for bears to catch them normally. But when they lose their wings, or, a starting QB and some ten other starters or so, then what? Well, I imagine the bears would have an easier time killing said seahawks and then eating them.

Pittsburgh @ CINCINATTI - I'm going to get burned with this pick. I can feel it. Polamalu out means this Steelers team is not the same. Plus, they can't run the ball. How is that different from last year? Not much, aside from Polamalu. But the Bengals all of a sudden are running the ball well, and this is a division game at home for a team that really should be 2-0. If the Bengals got to Aaron Rodgers with such ease last week, there's not much reason to why they can't get to Big Ben. I see alot of work out of the shotgun for the Steelers in this one, but I'm going to guess that the 'good Bengals' come out to play this week and edge the Steelers at home by a field goal.

Denver @ OAKLAND - One of the wierdest football plays I've ever seen plus a home game against the Browns equals 2-0 for Denver. I've also been killing JaMarcus Russell in my posts because he's really that terrible. But we're talking about a three way tie potentially in the AFC West this week kids! How awesome would that be!?! Oakland is a much different team at home too and I still think the Broncos suck. Oh, and I'm pretty sure Mr. Orton has never been introduced to Mr. Nnamdi Asomugha. Your field to throw on pretty much just got cut in half. Have fun, Kyle.

Miami @ SAN DIEGO - I'm all about the intagibles this week it seems. Well, in a league that you can't predict with great accuracy, why the heck not? Miami is playing on a short week, after controlling the time of possession at home 45 minutes to Indianapolis' 15, and still lost. Not to mention it only took their defence 8 posessions to force 3 punts and give up 27 points. Oh, and did we mention that they are travelling to San Diego? Nothing says 'potential beatdown' like a team who is losing confidence and travelling to a city where there shouldn't be too much focus on football. San Diego is starting to say goodbye to LT, and this team is going to go as far as Phillip Rivers will take them. Rivers managed a career-high in passing yards against the Ravens. The Ravens! Miami's secondary is terrible. San Diego shouldn't lose two in a row at home. Do the math. They should teach this stuff in third grade.

Indianapolis @ ARIZONA - Contrary to the Miami offense that was on the field for 45 minutes, the Indianapolis DEFENCE was on the field for those 45 minutes as well, and is working with a short week. . It's hard enough going to play in that climate in Miami, but for your defensive unit to be out there for 45 minutes!?! They should definitely be taxed going into this game. By the way, who said that Kurt Warner needed Todd Haley after Week One? Turns out all he needed was a healthy Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. Huh, who knew? Warner was 24/26 for 243 yards and 2 TDs. I don't care who that's against, that's sick. Peyton Manning had a great game too with his 14/23 for 303 and 2 TD performance. What am I saying? Well, expect points. Lots of points. But I give the edge to the home team in this one.

Carolina @ DALLAS - Ok, so I didn't expect Tony Romo to post a 29.6 passer rating last week, BUT they almost still beat a tough, physical, well-coached team despite it all. For his career, Tony Romo's passer rating is 94.2. That's one heck of a rating when you look at it. Another thing about that number is that for an individual season, it's never been higher than 98 or lower than 92. What am I getting at? Oddly enough, it conveys consistency somewhat. So if this guy is a career 94.2 rated passer, it's not likely he'll follow up a performance like last week's with another similar one. I think we're going to see a very good Cowboys team on Monday Night Football this week, but if history has taught us anything about the Cowboys in primetime, it's that this game is going to not only be close, but contain alot of points as well. Hopefully the 'Boys don't burn me again for backing them. Hmmm, 'Boys burn for backing. Alliteration. Nice way to end off the column this week.

That's it for this week. Enjoy this week's games everyone!!


- Deacon Touchback