'Twas the Night Before Christmas...

It's pretty much how I feel right now.

As I type this, we are less than 24 hours away from the kickoff to the 2009 NFL season.

So much has happened in the league since the Pittsburgh Steelers hoisted their sixth Super Bowl title, and the stage is set for another dramatic season in the NFL.

Tonight, the 2008 AFC regular season champion Tennessee Titans head into Steel City to take on the defending Super Bowl Champions.

Since the NFL decided to feature the defending champions in the regular season opening game on Thursday night (Since Indianapolis headed to New England in 2004, losing 27-24 to the Patriots), the road team record in those games is 0-5. At least 4 of those 5 times, the defending champions have also covered the spread (I can't remember what the spread was in 2004...).

History shows that the road team is destined to lose the opening game if we take a look at the last 5 years. In addition, only once has the road team gone on to post a winning record in the regular season if they had to open against the defending champs in Week 1 (the 2004 Indianapolis Colts went 12-4 in the regular season).

So what does that mean about tomorrow night's game?

It's the NFL, who knows.

If you like to bet with trends, then you probably are going to pick the Steelers, and pick them to cover the 6.5 point spread that Vegas currently lists.

If you're like me, and like to bet against trends sometimes, then you probably go out on a limb and say that the Titans go into Heinz Field and pull off the upset, despite losing DT Albert Haynesworth (one of the league's most dominant defensive tackles, when he wants to be)to free agency in the offseason.

I think this game is going to be closer than the spread indicates, and Tennessee might even be able to squeak out a victory if a few things go their way.

Tennessee is well-coached, and Jeff Fischer knows that the Pittsburgh defence is going to do it's best to attack the line of scrimmage aggressively through the middle to try and get Titans QB Kerry Collins outside of the pocket on passing downs. I can see Tennessee utilizing TEs Alge Crumpler and Bo Sciafe in earlier down situations to try and stretch the Steeler defense. A key to success for the Titans tonight will be whether or not they can stay out of second-and-long and third-and-long situations. On defence, the Titans need to make sure the Steelers cannot establish a run game early in the game, and find ways to get to the quarterback. And of course, doing these things early in a game never hurt a road team if they're able to quiet the home crowd early on.

Pittsburgh will most likely test out the interior run game in the abscence of DT Albert Haynesworth to control the ball and set up their play-action passing game. Of course this is easier said than done. If the Steelers can get a little bit of a run game going, and set up one-on-one matchups for QB Ben Roethlisberger to exploit, the Titans may be in for a long night. Defensively, the Steelers should use a combination of blitz and stunt blitz packages and try to put the Titans in long yardage situations on passing downs. Safety Troy Polamalu is at his best in those situations, and the Steelers would love to get at Kerry Collins early.

It's hard to go against the defending champions in this game, and I'm finding it hard to do so for a reason better than 'you never know, it's the NFL'. But that's really the truth of the situation here. I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans win, because when you have the advantage in the trenches, you have a very good chance to win games in this league, as long as you protect the football and don't put yourself in bad situations.

It's a game that could potentially have home-field advantage implications down the road, or it could be the beginning of a disappointing season for the losing team if you look at trends. Then again, the 2009 Titans are far from the 2005 Raiders, 2006 Dolphins, and 2007 Saints. Tennessee went 13-3 in the regular season last year before shooting themselves in the foot in the AFC divisional playoff against Baltimore.

There's no question that they'll be hungry.

But it's hard to start off the year betting against the team that's hoisting the banner on opening night.

Deacon's Prediction: Pittsburgh 23, Tennessee 16


Deacon Touchback

**All of my Week One predictions will be up later today.