I'm not talking about getting away to Australia for 3 weeks like my stupid brother. I wish...
No, I'm talking about the short break that we've had in the NFL season since the New Orleans Saints hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in Miami just over two weeks ago. From there, we fast forward to the present, and the path to the NFL Draft.
But before we get to the draft, there's a whole bunch of things going on that you can pay attention to if you need your NFL fix (like me).
Starting February 24, the NFL Scouting Combine gets underway, which pretty much works as the NFL's job fair for prospective players. Players are put through a series of tests, drills, and interviews with over 600 NFL personnel. NFL.com's Pat Kirwan writes about 10 players to watch at the combine here.
The end of February and early March also is the time when teams begin to place the franchise tag on players, and conversely begin releasing players into the free agent market. The Carolina Panthers said recently that they will not be placing the franchise tag on defensive tackle Julius Peppers, and he willl be one of the most attractive free agents on this year's market.
Recently, the San Diego Chargers released future hall-of-fame running back Ladanian Tomlinson, and today we learned that the Philadelphia Eagles will release Pro-Bowl running back Brian Westbrook. It seems that there is a growing crop of free agent runinng backs who are past 30 years old, and this figures to be one of the prominent themes for the upcoming offseason. It will be interesting to see which teams will be interested in signing the likes of Tomlinson, Westbrook, and others like Larry Johnson, Chester Taylor, and even Thomas Jones if the New York Jets decide to part ways with their aging running back.
There's a lot to get excited about for this upcoming offseason which should be full of headlines and stories as per usual, and it all starts tomorrow with the first day of the NFL Scouting Combine. For other blogs, analysis, and information on this year's NFL Scouting Combine, visit www.nfl.com/combine.
Lunch time is over.
- Deacon Touchback
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
Relief is spelled 'Fleur-de-lis'
It still has not sunk in. I can't begin to imagine how the city of New Orleans feels right now. I'm still trying to figure out how I feel about it all.
I experienced so many emotions watching that game, and the team I support wasn't even playing. In any event, there were times during Super Bowl XLIV I felt nervous, anxious, angry, happy. These emotions were enhanced, ultimately because I had been drinking for many hours prior to kickoff and watching the season come to an end the way it did brought me so much joy.
But around 48 hours later, after a write off of a day recovering from the party last night, I've had some time to analyze how I really feel about this whole thing.
The most obvious feeling is relief. Three weeks ago, we were down to four teams. Two of those teams I hate. After the Colts defeated the Jets in the AFC Championship, it was starting to look like I was going to have to live out my worst nightmare: A Colts/Vikings Super Bowl matchup.
Luckily, Minnesota has a funny way of messing up opportunities like 1st down on the opposing team's 33 yard line with a trip to the Super Bowl within reach. Nevermind not being able to hit a field goal in that situation, they didn't even get the chance to attempt one. The rest is history, or, for Vikings fans, what appears to have become a recurring reality.
Sunday, there was one last bullet to dodge. Friday's column pointed out all the reasons why I thought the Saints would win.
Watching the game unfold, and now having the day to reflect on it, I can't help but think:
- Why don't teams go for it more often on 4th and goal from three yards out or less? I mean, either you convert and get a touchdown with a huge boost of confidence to your team, or you make the opposing team drive 97 yards on you. Even if you don't convert the fourth down, more times than not you're going to force the team into a punting situation, where you get the ball back with great field position. It's shocking to think that teams don't do this more often.
- Why weren't the Colts more aggressive on the ensuing drive on 3rd down? If you make it, you go into your hurry up offence, and probably put up at least 3 more points on the board before half. So why call a run play? Does it really matter how you get that yard or two? Why do you not put the ball in the hands of Peyton Manning? I'm sure there has to be a play that they could have called better than what they did. Result: Punt, and the Saints come back before half to get three (potential 6 or 10 point swing there).
- Why was I mentioning the brilliant Saints head coach in Friday's column? Because two weeks is a lot of time to prepare for Sean Payton. Needless to say, he had quite the gameplan and was able to adapt better than the Colts' coaches. (We'll revisit this point later on)
- Are we shocked that special teams plays were an important factor in this game? Are we shocked that the Colts' special teams lost the battle? Onside kick successful for the Saints. Then on the kickoff following the Saints field goal to make it 17-16, there was a decision by a Colts' return man to run the ball out for an 11 yard return, as opposed to taking the touchback which would have placed the ball at the 20-yard line. Several plays later, the Colts are on the Saints' 34-yard line. If they had those extra nine yards, the field goal wouldn't have appeared so daunting. Which is a great segway into...
- Why do you attempt a 51-yard field goal in that siutation if you are the Colts? This is another thing that I don't understand. Ok fine, you are trying to 'put points on the board', but at what risk? If you miss, the opposition gets fantastic field position. And what kind of message does that send to your defence? Instead, another special teams play not converted, and your defence is sent back out with a short field to defend. You cannot overlook the importance of field position in the game of football. What happened next? Saints touchdown.
- This led us to the play of the game where Saints' CB Tracy Porter jumped a route by Reggie Wayne turning a poorly thrown pass by Manning into an interception returned for a touchdown. Game. Set. Match. (Side note: This moment produced a "wish I would have thought to say this at that moment" moment, which will be part of next year's preachments by the way. While at home today, the scene from Rocky IV where he cuts Ivan Drago came to mind. In between rounds of the epic bout in Moscow, Duke gets in Rocky's face to remind him after Rocky landed a blow to cut the Russian, "You see! He's not a machine! He's a Man!" Considering the crowd I was watching the game with, if I busted out that line after the interception, it would have been the night's defining moment. Oh well, maybe next time.)
- Aside from this one mistake, Peyton Manning played one hell of a game, and if people are going to blame the outcome on him that would be a shame.
- Drew Brees and Sean Payton are officially on my I'd-buy-them-a-drink-if-I-ever-saw-them list.
Brees to Deacon - "Thanks, but who are you?"
Deacon to Brees - "I'm nobody, dude. Just a very big Chicago Bears fan who appreciates everything you did to the Vikings and Colts fans in the 2009 Season. I just needed to say, thank you. You have no idea the pain and suffering you helped me avoid.
- I'm pretty sure that people are going to finally stop overlooking Drew Brees as one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and Sean Payton as one of the top head coaches in the NFL.
As I just mentioned, to lay the blame on the shoulders of Peyton Manning would be a shame. The fact is that it was a crucial error at the worst possible time, but don't forget all the great plays that he made prior to that point.
In my last column, I warned people to not discount the other phases of the game of football that Manning cannot control from the sidelines. After watching what happened on Sunday, I don't think that I need to do much more convincing.
Manning didn't make Pierre Garcon drop a pass in the first half where he would have been off to the races setting up another Colts score. He didn't make the decision to run the ball on a crucial third and short situation which resulted in the Colts punting back to the Saints yielding great field position. He didn't try to recover an onside kick with his helmet. He didn't make the decision to run back a kickoff to the 11-yard line. He didn't make the decision to kick a 51-yard field goal. He surely wasn't on the field playing defence in a Cover-2 scheme designed to limit the big play, but leave the middle of the field exploitable for Brees and his league-best offence. He didn't come up with the defensive game plan.
Ironically, that same defensive approach was used unsuccessfully against the Colts three years ago in Super Bowl XLI by the Chicago Bears. Definitely a coaching mistake, the Colts used the same conservative approach. It worked early on because Sean Payton knew that facing Manning, he was going to have to take risks. He knew that the Saints would have to find ways to make big plays. When that didn't work and he discovered what the Colts were doing, he adjusted his gameplan, and ironically, that conservative Cover-2 scheme that the Colts killed three years ago was their achilles heel three years later. The Saints built multiple scoring drives, and the Colts never adjusted to the game that was in front of their face. On the game winning touchdown drive, Brees was 8 for 8, completing all 8 passes to 8 different receivers, including the two-point conversion to Devery Henderson.
Did the Colts forget that they were facing Drew Brees and the league's best offence? Did they forget that to get to the Super Bowl, the Saints defeated teams quarterbacked by future hall of famers Kurt Warner and Brett Favre? Someone should have told the Colts that they weren't facing Joe Flacco or Mark Sanchez this week...
Some will call the New Orleans Saints a team of destiny. Some will look back at the NFC Championship game and say that they should not have been in the Super Bowl. I'm sure that New Orleans players will play up the idea of destiny in the media because that's fun to sell and that's fun for story-telling, and considering the work that lies ahead for that city in its rebuilding process, that's a great idea to sell. But this game's result had nothing to do with destiny or fate.
The Colts jumped out to a 10 point lead, and then after that scored only 7 of the games 38 points the rest of the way.
The Saints adjusted better than the Colts did. They played better. They were coached better. They tackled better. They made more plays. They had more engery. They wanted it more.
The looks of both teams on the sidelines could have not been more polarizing. On one side, you had a team with stone-cold looks on their faces, hoping that their quarterback was going to save them. On the other side you had a head coach fist-pumping like a madman, screaming and yelling at his players, all of which looked like a bunch of rowdy high school kids.
The Saints created their destiny through preparation, hard work, and execution.
To suggest this was a team of destiny discounts everything that team, its players, and its city had to endure to get to this point. It would be terribly wrong to do so.
Just like it would be wrong to think that the Colts' ultimate demise was the fault of Peyton Manning. Unforunately, nobody is going to remember the 31 completed passes, the 300+ yards passing, or the touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon. The game's defining moment came from the one mistake he made, and sadly that's all most people will remember.
When talking about the game-sealing interception, Tracy Porter said that he had a good idea about what the play was going to look like because he had seen it so many times on film. That's not destiny. That's film study. That's preparation.
When I look back at everything that I read or watched prior to this game, I've realized that the hate that I thought I had towards Peyton Manning, was really hate for the Colts as an organization and how they have been treated in the media.
That's not to say that I don't understand why the Colts are great for the media to sell. They are a small market team, they have arguably one of the best quarterbacks of all time, and they are compelling. But it's this kind of thing that makes people fall in love without looking at the complete picture of this team. It's another one of the reasons I had no hesitation in picking against them in this game.
Since 2003, the Colts have not recorded more than 4 regular season losses in a single year. They have captured 6 out of 7 AFC South Division titles. Peyton Manning has won league MVP honors a league-best 4 times. Some have the opinion that this is the team of the decade. But what happened in those 7 years?
They made the AFC title game three times, winning twice. On the surface, that looks pretty impressive.
But what about the losses? In three of the four other seasons, they made early exits out of the playoffs in the Divisional round to the New England Patriots (2004), Pittsburgh Steelers (2005), and the San Diego Chargers (2007). Also, they lost to the San Diego Chargers in the Wild Card round (2008). What is noteworthy of the last three: All of those playoff losses were at home to lower seeded teams.
I understand that because this team was more experienced, and because of Peyton Manning's play this year being at an almost 'machine-like' level, people deemed them to be unstoppable.
Without a doubt, this Colts team is built for success, but it's apparent that might be regular season success as opposed to post-season success. In the end, Peyton Manning's playoff record is 9-9 lifetime, and that's going to be a tough number to erase from the minds of people when the "Greatest of All Time" talks arise.
The reality of football is that quarterbacks become glorified for team success because it is highly recognized as the most important position on the field. So if it's fair for the people to attribute a large part of the success of the Colts to the play of their quarterback, so to must a piece of the blame when they lose - fair or not. We can't sit and talk about all the problems with the Colts that Manning can overcome because he's so good at what he does, but he does need to shoulder some of the blame. It might not be fair, but it's the way it is.
The culture of sports places a high value on winning in team sports because the championship is the pinnacle of team achievements. If the game of football recognizes its quarterbacks to be the most important part of championship winning teams, then it must also recognize the quarterback to at least be a 'part' of the failures of teams who do not win championships. It is because of this, the loss on Sunday will be a large blemish on the case built for Peyton Manning as the best ever.
Take Drew Brees, for example. Over the last 5 seasons with the Saints, Drew Brees has put together some very impressive stats, and at the age of 31, there's alot of reason to think that he'll continue to produce at an elite level for years to come.
If I argued that Brees continued to produce at that level for another few years or so, but was without a Super Bowl ring, it would be tough to imagine him getting into the Hall of Fame ten years down the line.
But if I were to pose the same question now that he has won, a lot of people would change their mind and the reason would be that ring.
Now I dont think that one mistake that Manning made will define his entire career. That's just crazy. But it might be the difference between being 'one of the greatest' and being 'the unquestioned greatest' of all time. The game of football is a game of inches, and one or two plays can change a legacy or a career.
Two years ago, if Asante Samuel catches what should have been a sure interception, or if the Patriots sack Eli Manning, or if David Tyree does not make that catch on his helmet, then the Patriots complete a perfect season, go down as the greatest team in NFL history, and Tom Brady and the Patriots become immortal. One or two plays was the difference between 'one of the best' and 'the best'. That same line of thinking has to apply when we now talk about Peyton Manning.
Of course, the people who would argue that Manning is the best of all-time will point out what the rest of his teams looked like. They would argue that Joe Montana played with Hall of Famers at almost every position on the field. They would argue that he never got to play with a defence like the '85 Bears or 2000 Ravens.
But while they would be arguing to make their case for Peyton Manning as the 'best ever' stronger, they would most definitely be making the case for the Colts as a team much weaker. The latter is exactly why I took the stance on the Super Bowl that I did, and I think that it's why I've realized that I don't hate Manning, but I hate the way there is a sense of entitlement among their fans and organization because they have him as their quarterback. If you had to compare this team to another sports franchise, the Atlanta Braves come to mind: Built for success in the regular season, and not enough championships to be considered any better than that.
All the hype that clouded the Colts before the Super Bowl worked against them. People expected the Colts to win. Former Colts' head coach Tony Dungy said they would win easily. You could see in the eyes of the players during media week that they were all buying into the idea that there was nothing going to stop them from winning another Super Bowl because they had Peyton Manning on their side, who was playing for 'more than just a Super Bowl' as one publication put it. Again, I revisit the idea that they had a sense of entitlement.
But that's why they play the games.
Heck, maybe this is what the Colts get for spitting in the face of the football Gods by throwing away their chance at a perfect season. I guess we'll never know.
What we do know is that the world watched the New Orleans Saints come into Miami on the league's biggest stage in the league's biggest game, and showed everyone why they should have been given a lot more respect. Maybe it's because most people don't actually sit down and watch the games. Someone just watching the playoffs would have remembered the NFC Championship and figured there was no way they would beat the Colts.
The thing about sports, is that you actually have to watch the games to have an opinion on these sorts of things. I have to say that from the football that I have had the pleasure to enjoy, Peyton Manning may be the best QB I've ever watched play the game. It's because I can't say that I have a memory of watching Joe Montana outside of the highlights I've seen countless times on the NFL Network. I can't say that I remember the entire careers of guys like Dan Marino, or even John Elway. I can only have on opinion for what I've seen.
And after what I saw on Sunday, it's really hard to sum up the performance of a player by the one mistake he made. Just like it's hard to discount things that a player might do over the course of an entire career because of one pass he threw, or one game he didn't win. Unfortunately, right now Tracy Porter's interception is the memory that is fresh in people's minds. Whether that is fair or not is not for you or me to decide. It is the reality of sports.
In the end, here I am still devoting the majority of this column to what it means for Peyton Manning and the Colts. Perhaps that makes me a hypocrite. I can guarantee that if people are still not talking about the Saints, it doesn't matter to them. They are football's champion and have earned their place in the great history of the NFL as Super Bowl champions. It's something that no person or column written can ever take away from them, and from it there is something that I think we can all take away.
Their Super Bowl victory should be a lesson to us all that in the face of adversity, against all odds, when everyone around you except those that believe in you are telling you what you cannot have, look at what you can accomplish with hard work, preparation, determination, and the drive to fight for what you want.
Destiny? That's talk for losers.
Winners create their destiny.
- Deacon Touchback
I experienced so many emotions watching that game, and the team I support wasn't even playing. In any event, there were times during Super Bowl XLIV I felt nervous, anxious, angry, happy. These emotions were enhanced, ultimately because I had been drinking for many hours prior to kickoff and watching the season come to an end the way it did brought me so much joy.
But around 48 hours later, after a write off of a day recovering from the party last night, I've had some time to analyze how I really feel about this whole thing.
The most obvious feeling is relief. Three weeks ago, we were down to four teams. Two of those teams I hate. After the Colts defeated the Jets in the AFC Championship, it was starting to look like I was going to have to live out my worst nightmare: A Colts/Vikings Super Bowl matchup.
Luckily, Minnesota has a funny way of messing up opportunities like 1st down on the opposing team's 33 yard line with a trip to the Super Bowl within reach. Nevermind not being able to hit a field goal in that situation, they didn't even get the chance to attempt one. The rest is history, or, for Vikings fans, what appears to have become a recurring reality.
Sunday, there was one last bullet to dodge. Friday's column pointed out all the reasons why I thought the Saints would win.
Watching the game unfold, and now having the day to reflect on it, I can't help but think:
- Why don't teams go for it more often on 4th and goal from three yards out or less? I mean, either you convert and get a touchdown with a huge boost of confidence to your team, or you make the opposing team drive 97 yards on you. Even if you don't convert the fourth down, more times than not you're going to force the team into a punting situation, where you get the ball back with great field position. It's shocking to think that teams don't do this more often.
- Why weren't the Colts more aggressive on the ensuing drive on 3rd down? If you make it, you go into your hurry up offence, and probably put up at least 3 more points on the board before half. So why call a run play? Does it really matter how you get that yard or two? Why do you not put the ball in the hands of Peyton Manning? I'm sure there has to be a play that they could have called better than what they did. Result: Punt, and the Saints come back before half to get three (potential 6 or 10 point swing there).
- Why was I mentioning the brilliant Saints head coach in Friday's column? Because two weeks is a lot of time to prepare for Sean Payton. Needless to say, he had quite the gameplan and was able to adapt better than the Colts' coaches. (We'll revisit this point later on)
- Are we shocked that special teams plays were an important factor in this game? Are we shocked that the Colts' special teams lost the battle? Onside kick successful for the Saints. Then on the kickoff following the Saints field goal to make it 17-16, there was a decision by a Colts' return man to run the ball out for an 11 yard return, as opposed to taking the touchback which would have placed the ball at the 20-yard line. Several plays later, the Colts are on the Saints' 34-yard line. If they had those extra nine yards, the field goal wouldn't have appeared so daunting. Which is a great segway into...
- Why do you attempt a 51-yard field goal in that siutation if you are the Colts? This is another thing that I don't understand. Ok fine, you are trying to 'put points on the board', but at what risk? If you miss, the opposition gets fantastic field position. And what kind of message does that send to your defence? Instead, another special teams play not converted, and your defence is sent back out with a short field to defend. You cannot overlook the importance of field position in the game of football. What happened next? Saints touchdown.
- This led us to the play of the game where Saints' CB Tracy Porter jumped a route by Reggie Wayne turning a poorly thrown pass by Manning into an interception returned for a touchdown. Game. Set. Match. (Side note: This moment produced a "wish I would have thought to say this at that moment" moment, which will be part of next year's preachments by the way. While at home today, the scene from Rocky IV where he cuts Ivan Drago came to mind. In between rounds of the epic bout in Moscow, Duke gets in Rocky's face to remind him after Rocky landed a blow to cut the Russian, "You see! He's not a machine! He's a Man!" Considering the crowd I was watching the game with, if I busted out that line after the interception, it would have been the night's defining moment. Oh well, maybe next time.)
- Aside from this one mistake, Peyton Manning played one hell of a game, and if people are going to blame the outcome on him that would be a shame.
- Drew Brees and Sean Payton are officially on my I'd-buy-them-a-drink-if-I-ever-saw-them list.
Brees to Deacon - "Thanks, but who are you?"
Deacon to Brees - "I'm nobody, dude. Just a very big Chicago Bears fan who appreciates everything you did to the Vikings and Colts fans in the 2009 Season. I just needed to say, thank you. You have no idea the pain and suffering you helped me avoid.
- I'm pretty sure that people are going to finally stop overlooking Drew Brees as one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and Sean Payton as one of the top head coaches in the NFL.
As I just mentioned, to lay the blame on the shoulders of Peyton Manning would be a shame. The fact is that it was a crucial error at the worst possible time, but don't forget all the great plays that he made prior to that point.
In my last column, I warned people to not discount the other phases of the game of football that Manning cannot control from the sidelines. After watching what happened on Sunday, I don't think that I need to do much more convincing.
Manning didn't make Pierre Garcon drop a pass in the first half where he would have been off to the races setting up another Colts score. He didn't make the decision to run the ball on a crucial third and short situation which resulted in the Colts punting back to the Saints yielding great field position. He didn't try to recover an onside kick with his helmet. He didn't make the decision to run back a kickoff to the 11-yard line. He didn't make the decision to kick a 51-yard field goal. He surely wasn't on the field playing defence in a Cover-2 scheme designed to limit the big play, but leave the middle of the field exploitable for Brees and his league-best offence. He didn't come up with the defensive game plan.
Ironically, that same defensive approach was used unsuccessfully against the Colts three years ago in Super Bowl XLI by the Chicago Bears. Definitely a coaching mistake, the Colts used the same conservative approach. It worked early on because Sean Payton knew that facing Manning, he was going to have to take risks. He knew that the Saints would have to find ways to make big plays. When that didn't work and he discovered what the Colts were doing, he adjusted his gameplan, and ironically, that conservative Cover-2 scheme that the Colts killed three years ago was their achilles heel three years later. The Saints built multiple scoring drives, and the Colts never adjusted to the game that was in front of their face. On the game winning touchdown drive, Brees was 8 for 8, completing all 8 passes to 8 different receivers, including the two-point conversion to Devery Henderson.
Did the Colts forget that they were facing Drew Brees and the league's best offence? Did they forget that to get to the Super Bowl, the Saints defeated teams quarterbacked by future hall of famers Kurt Warner and Brett Favre? Someone should have told the Colts that they weren't facing Joe Flacco or Mark Sanchez this week...
Some will call the New Orleans Saints a team of destiny. Some will look back at the NFC Championship game and say that they should not have been in the Super Bowl. I'm sure that New Orleans players will play up the idea of destiny in the media because that's fun to sell and that's fun for story-telling, and considering the work that lies ahead for that city in its rebuilding process, that's a great idea to sell. But this game's result had nothing to do with destiny or fate.
The Colts jumped out to a 10 point lead, and then after that scored only 7 of the games 38 points the rest of the way.
The Saints adjusted better than the Colts did. They played better. They were coached better. They tackled better. They made more plays. They had more engery. They wanted it more.
The looks of both teams on the sidelines could have not been more polarizing. On one side, you had a team with stone-cold looks on their faces, hoping that their quarterback was going to save them. On the other side you had a head coach fist-pumping like a madman, screaming and yelling at his players, all of which looked like a bunch of rowdy high school kids.
The Saints created their destiny through preparation, hard work, and execution.
To suggest this was a team of destiny discounts everything that team, its players, and its city had to endure to get to this point. It would be terribly wrong to do so.
Just like it would be wrong to think that the Colts' ultimate demise was the fault of Peyton Manning. Unforunately, nobody is going to remember the 31 completed passes, the 300+ yards passing, or the touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon. The game's defining moment came from the one mistake he made, and sadly that's all most people will remember.
When talking about the game-sealing interception, Tracy Porter said that he had a good idea about what the play was going to look like because he had seen it so many times on film. That's not destiny. That's film study. That's preparation.
When I look back at everything that I read or watched prior to this game, I've realized that the hate that I thought I had towards Peyton Manning, was really hate for the Colts as an organization and how they have been treated in the media.
That's not to say that I don't understand why the Colts are great for the media to sell. They are a small market team, they have arguably one of the best quarterbacks of all time, and they are compelling. But it's this kind of thing that makes people fall in love without looking at the complete picture of this team. It's another one of the reasons I had no hesitation in picking against them in this game.
Since 2003, the Colts have not recorded more than 4 regular season losses in a single year. They have captured 6 out of 7 AFC South Division titles. Peyton Manning has won league MVP honors a league-best 4 times. Some have the opinion that this is the team of the decade. But what happened in those 7 years?
They made the AFC title game three times, winning twice. On the surface, that looks pretty impressive.
But what about the losses? In three of the four other seasons, they made early exits out of the playoffs in the Divisional round to the New England Patriots (2004), Pittsburgh Steelers (2005), and the San Diego Chargers (2007). Also, they lost to the San Diego Chargers in the Wild Card round (2008). What is noteworthy of the last three: All of those playoff losses were at home to lower seeded teams.
I understand that because this team was more experienced, and because of Peyton Manning's play this year being at an almost 'machine-like' level, people deemed them to be unstoppable.
Without a doubt, this Colts team is built for success, but it's apparent that might be regular season success as opposed to post-season success. In the end, Peyton Manning's playoff record is 9-9 lifetime, and that's going to be a tough number to erase from the minds of people when the "Greatest of All Time" talks arise.
The reality of football is that quarterbacks become glorified for team success because it is highly recognized as the most important position on the field. So if it's fair for the people to attribute a large part of the success of the Colts to the play of their quarterback, so to must a piece of the blame when they lose - fair or not. We can't sit and talk about all the problems with the Colts that Manning can overcome because he's so good at what he does, but he does need to shoulder some of the blame. It might not be fair, but it's the way it is.
The culture of sports places a high value on winning in team sports because the championship is the pinnacle of team achievements. If the game of football recognizes its quarterbacks to be the most important part of championship winning teams, then it must also recognize the quarterback to at least be a 'part' of the failures of teams who do not win championships. It is because of this, the loss on Sunday will be a large blemish on the case built for Peyton Manning as the best ever.
Take Drew Brees, for example. Over the last 5 seasons with the Saints, Drew Brees has put together some very impressive stats, and at the age of 31, there's alot of reason to think that he'll continue to produce at an elite level for years to come.
If I argued that Brees continued to produce at that level for another few years or so, but was without a Super Bowl ring, it would be tough to imagine him getting into the Hall of Fame ten years down the line.
But if I were to pose the same question now that he has won, a lot of people would change their mind and the reason would be that ring.
Now I dont think that one mistake that Manning made will define his entire career. That's just crazy. But it might be the difference between being 'one of the greatest' and being 'the unquestioned greatest' of all time. The game of football is a game of inches, and one or two plays can change a legacy or a career.
Two years ago, if Asante Samuel catches what should have been a sure interception, or if the Patriots sack Eli Manning, or if David Tyree does not make that catch on his helmet, then the Patriots complete a perfect season, go down as the greatest team in NFL history, and Tom Brady and the Patriots become immortal. One or two plays was the difference between 'one of the best' and 'the best'. That same line of thinking has to apply when we now talk about Peyton Manning.
Of course, the people who would argue that Manning is the best of all-time will point out what the rest of his teams looked like. They would argue that Joe Montana played with Hall of Famers at almost every position on the field. They would argue that he never got to play with a defence like the '85 Bears or 2000 Ravens.
But while they would be arguing to make their case for Peyton Manning as the 'best ever' stronger, they would most definitely be making the case for the Colts as a team much weaker. The latter is exactly why I took the stance on the Super Bowl that I did, and I think that it's why I've realized that I don't hate Manning, but I hate the way there is a sense of entitlement among their fans and organization because they have him as their quarterback. If you had to compare this team to another sports franchise, the Atlanta Braves come to mind: Built for success in the regular season, and not enough championships to be considered any better than that.
All the hype that clouded the Colts before the Super Bowl worked against them. People expected the Colts to win. Former Colts' head coach Tony Dungy said they would win easily. You could see in the eyes of the players during media week that they were all buying into the idea that there was nothing going to stop them from winning another Super Bowl because they had Peyton Manning on their side, who was playing for 'more than just a Super Bowl' as one publication put it. Again, I revisit the idea that they had a sense of entitlement.
But that's why they play the games.
Heck, maybe this is what the Colts get for spitting in the face of the football Gods by throwing away their chance at a perfect season. I guess we'll never know.
What we do know is that the world watched the New Orleans Saints come into Miami on the league's biggest stage in the league's biggest game, and showed everyone why they should have been given a lot more respect. Maybe it's because most people don't actually sit down and watch the games. Someone just watching the playoffs would have remembered the NFC Championship and figured there was no way they would beat the Colts.
The thing about sports, is that you actually have to watch the games to have an opinion on these sorts of things. I have to say that from the football that I have had the pleasure to enjoy, Peyton Manning may be the best QB I've ever watched play the game. It's because I can't say that I have a memory of watching Joe Montana outside of the highlights I've seen countless times on the NFL Network. I can't say that I remember the entire careers of guys like Dan Marino, or even John Elway. I can only have on opinion for what I've seen.
And after what I saw on Sunday, it's really hard to sum up the performance of a player by the one mistake he made. Just like it's hard to discount things that a player might do over the course of an entire career because of one pass he threw, or one game he didn't win. Unfortunately, right now Tracy Porter's interception is the memory that is fresh in people's minds. Whether that is fair or not is not for you or me to decide. It is the reality of sports.
In the end, here I am still devoting the majority of this column to what it means for Peyton Manning and the Colts. Perhaps that makes me a hypocrite. I can guarantee that if people are still not talking about the Saints, it doesn't matter to them. They are football's champion and have earned their place in the great history of the NFL as Super Bowl champions. It's something that no person or column written can ever take away from them, and from it there is something that I think we can all take away.
Their Super Bowl victory should be a lesson to us all that in the face of adversity, against all odds, when everyone around you except those that believe in you are telling you what you cannot have, look at what you can accomplish with hard work, preparation, determination, and the drive to fight for what you want.
Destiny? That's talk for losers.
Winners create their destiny.
- Deacon Touchback
Friday, February 5, 2010
The Road Stops Here
After 21 weeks, 151 calendar days, and 266 games (because no one cares about that pre-season shit), we are finally here at the one game to end it all for the 2009 season.
For one team, all that hard work is going to pay off as they etch their name into the history books alongside the other 43 NFL Super Bowl Championship teams.
Who will it be?
Super Bowl Sunday is fun for so many reasons. The parties. The commercials (that we don't get here in Canada, which I won't get into). The gambling. And oh yeah, the game.
Speaking of the g...errr, gambling, the best part might be all the prop bets. Super Bowl Sunday is the day that you can (on gambling sites, or in Vegas, etc.) bet on all the crazy things in the Super Bowl from the coin toss to what color Gatorade will be used to shower the winning head coach. The last three years, it's been clear, or in other words...water. This year, for some reason I'm loving yellow Gatorade at +400.
Other random prop bets I love:
- Tails (-105)
- National Anthem - OVER (whatever it is)
- Will Peyton Manning throw a TD pass in 2nd Quarter? Yes (-140)
- Peyton Manning will throw a pass greater than 39 yards (+105)
- Drew Brees first pass of the game will be incomplete (+200)
- Drew Brees first rushing attempt will be over 1/2 yards (-135)
- Drew Brees will throw a 3rd quarter TD pass (+160)
- and of course there are many more
But on a more serious note...
On Sunday, a lot of questions are going to be answered, and a few questions will be left unanswered. Surely, the most prominent of unanswered questions will be where the 2009 Colts would stack up against the historical Super Bowl Champions if they win on Sunday, and if they hadn't kneeled away Weeks 16 and 17. Why would it be left unanswered? Because it can't be answered definitively.
I think that any reasonable football fan would agree that this Colts team, win or lose, is not the greatest team of all time. Even if they were chasing a perfect season this Sunday, I still would not rank them above some others. Would they have been the league's only 19-0 team in history? Obviously, yes.
However, the reality is that if the 'best team of all time' discussion comes up, the Colts don't have the 'undefeated' trump card to play. They folded that card away in Week 16.
In the end, it's about winning a championship. At least that's what the Colts organization will say.
The players feel a little bit different. Colts Pro-Bowl center Jeff Saturday has gone on record to say that the players wanted to go for the perfect season, but management did not. Of course they let their players play just long enough in Buffalo in Week 17 to register a couple 100-reception seasons for Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. There's a message...
With a win on Sunday, would Peyton Manning be regarded as the greatest quarterback of all time? We've watched Manning play at an extremely high level this year, and he continues to make his case to be regarded as the best ever. Some already have the opinion that he is the best ever.
This is why sports magazines, and columnists, and radio stations are able to do what they do because like this question, so many things in sports are debateable. We take in and digest so many opinions and stats about these kinds of debates, that sometimes we forget to just watch and enjoy the game.
People are going to tune in this weekend, and not even be watching the game, which should be great. Every time the ball is snapped, people are going to worry about how that play contributes to Manning's legacy, or the story of the New Orleans Saints, or how Archie Manning is going to 'Manning-face' to a 'Manning-face', or whatever storyline or tagline the media has attached to this game.
And there's a reason why I've waited so long in this blog entry to mention the Saints: No one is talking about them.
Sure, they are mentioning them, but I don't think that anyone is really giving New Orleans a hope in hell to win this game on Sunday. Everyone has fallen in love with the Colts because of Peyton Manning. The wiseguys in Vegas love the Colts. The public loves the Colts. Everyone loves Peyton to win a second Super Bowl MVP. Everyone thinks the game is already over before it even starts.
Everyone keeps overlooking the Saints.
I'm not going to say that I think just because people are overlooking the Saints they are going to win on Sunday. But kids, we've been here before.
Have people forgotten that a perfect season was denied by the New York Giants just two years ago in the final game of the year? Have people forgotten that team was quarterbacked by Eli Manning? Have people forgotten that the greatest scoring offense OF ALL TIME was held to just 14 points in that Super Bowl?
Believe me, people might be out there saying "I'm not saying that the Saints can't win, I just don't think they will," just so that in the event the Saints do win, they can come back and say, "Yeah, see I knew they could win." What they are really thinking, is that one football player has become so good at playing the most important position in the sport, that the other team cannot stop his team.
Think about that for a second. Football is a team game, and while Peyton Manning is so damn good that he may in fact be able to win this game dissecting the Saints on every drive, things could happen that are out of his control to change that fate.
When Asante Samuel let a sure interception slip through his hands near the sidelines in Super Bowl XLII that would have clinched a perfect season, could Tom Brady do anything about that from the bench? When the Pats defensive line had Eli Manning wrapped up for what appeared to be a sure sack, to only let him escape and heave a ball downfield that was caught by a New York Giant on his friggin' helmet, could Brady do anything about it from the sidelines?
Peyton Manning can only do what he can. He can't make his running backs hold on to the ball. He can't prevent his receivers from potentially getting stripped of balls they've caught. He can't block for himself. He can't play defence, and he can't make plays in more than one place on the field.
Try to forget about the most recent work put out there by the Saints. Forget that they are considered to be lucky to be here after getting dominated for the most part at home against the Minnesota Vikings. Try to forget the loss to Dallas. Try to forget the loss to Tampa Bay. Try to forget Mark Brunell starting Week 17.
Remember the team you've watched all season long. Remember that both of these teams faced the Patriots at home this year. One team was an inch away from losing. The other team handed out a beating.
Remember 2007 when Brett Favre threw an interception in OT of the NFC Championship game that helped set up the game-winning field goal for the New York Giants. Remember that two weeks later the Giants went on to shock the world. Remember David Tyree. Wait, don't remember him? He's the dude who caught the first touchdown pass in Super Bowl XLII, caught the famous "on the helmet" ball, and never would catch another ball for the New York Giants ever again. Remember how sometimes, history can have a funny way of repeating itself.
Lets take out the season we've watched Peyton Manning have, and just take a look at Drew Brees: 4,388 passing yards, 34 touchdown passes (1st in the NFL), 70.6 % completion percentage (1st), sacked only 20 times (behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady who played as many games), and a 109.6 passer rating (1st).
And this guy and his team have no chance to win this football game? Do you know where Drew Brees won a high school championship? In the state of Texas. At that age, it doesn't get any more pressured than that. In college, he managed to get Purdue to the Rose Bowl. (For those of us that know a thing or two about college football, the Big 10 representative in the Rose Bowl is usually Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State). And here we are, in the NFL where he's taken the New Orleans Saints to their first Super Bowl.
If you look at most of the gambling metrics that professional sports gamblers look at (which I will not get into), most of the trends are positive for the Colts and are negative for the Saints. So it's not a surprise that people are in mad love with the Colts when you take those trends and couple them with the unbeatable Peyton Manning.
But if you take a look at the football numbers, some experts (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/) would say it's 50/50 and arguably one of the closest Super Bowl matchups in recent history.
Believe me, I've been pretty open with my hate for the Colts. It's not to say that I don't respect them. They've built this team through the draft, are experienced, and have been here before. After what I've seen from Manning this year, I will say that he's the best quarterback that I've ever seen play the position, with or without this Super Bowl. And while he is playing for more than just another ring this Sunday, he can't control every inch of the game.
Anyone who has watched football this year knows that the two best teams are playing in this game on Sunday, and there's not really a point to diving into the huge number of matchup questions that cloud over this game (because I dont get paid to do so). The point I'm trying to make, is that despite all the variables that come into winning a football game, people have done what they can to simplify it to one single matchup: Saints vs. Manning.
They discount all aforementioned factors beyond quarterback control, and even the motivational factors. Do people realize what era we live in? Do people think the Saints players don't read blogs or websites? Do we think they don't know that even though the public is being polite about it, they are being given virtually no shot to win? These guys have cell phones, text, talk, read ESPN.
It's one game. It's 60 minutes. It's for everything. And so far, it's been all about one man.
Motivation for the other guy? I'd say so. And you know me. I love intangibles.
Deacon's Prediction:
The Saints are going to have to score last. It's the only way I think they can win this game. And when the whole game is on the line and a field goal won't do, and the one man that cannot be stopped is standing on the sidelines, the little guy from Dallas, TX is going to march his league-best offense down the field for the game-winning touchdown, executing the plays called by his brilliant head coach.
I believe the Saints are going to win this game. I've been wrong for almost the entire playoffs, so who gives a shit if I'm wrong now. I'm not going to pick the Colts to try and jinx them so if they win I'll at least have picked right. Fuck that. I'm not going to make excuses if I'm wrong. I'm picking the Saints, and not just because I can be 'that guy' who said I told you so by making the bold prediction, when so many others are going the other way. This wasn't based on contrarian theory kids, it's just an example of it.
If this writing was meant to do anything, it was to convince you that considering all the factors that go into a football game, such a prediction should not be considered all that bold anyway.
Super Bowl XLIV: New Orleans 34, Indianapolis 31
- Deacon Touchback
For one team, all that hard work is going to pay off as they etch their name into the history books alongside the other 43 NFL Super Bowl Championship teams.
Who will it be?
Super Bowl Sunday is fun for so many reasons. The parties. The commercials (that we don't get here in Canada, which I won't get into). The gambling. And oh yeah, the game.
Speaking of the g...errr, gambling, the best part might be all the prop bets. Super Bowl Sunday is the day that you can (on gambling sites, or in Vegas, etc.) bet on all the crazy things in the Super Bowl from the coin toss to what color Gatorade will be used to shower the winning head coach. The last three years, it's been clear, or in other words...water. This year, for some reason I'm loving yellow Gatorade at +400.
Other random prop bets I love:
- Tails (-105)
- National Anthem - OVER (whatever it is)
- Will Peyton Manning throw a TD pass in 2nd Quarter? Yes (-140)
- Peyton Manning will throw a pass greater than 39 yards (+105)
- Drew Brees first pass of the game will be incomplete (+200)
- Drew Brees first rushing attempt will be over 1/2 yards (-135)
- Drew Brees will throw a 3rd quarter TD pass (+160)
- and of course there are many more
But on a more serious note...
On Sunday, a lot of questions are going to be answered, and a few questions will be left unanswered. Surely, the most prominent of unanswered questions will be where the 2009 Colts would stack up against the historical Super Bowl Champions if they win on Sunday, and if they hadn't kneeled away Weeks 16 and 17. Why would it be left unanswered? Because it can't be answered definitively.
I think that any reasonable football fan would agree that this Colts team, win or lose, is not the greatest team of all time. Even if they were chasing a perfect season this Sunday, I still would not rank them above some others. Would they have been the league's only 19-0 team in history? Obviously, yes.
However, the reality is that if the 'best team of all time' discussion comes up, the Colts don't have the 'undefeated' trump card to play. They folded that card away in Week 16.
In the end, it's about winning a championship. At least that's what the Colts organization will say.
The players feel a little bit different. Colts Pro-Bowl center Jeff Saturday has gone on record to say that the players wanted to go for the perfect season, but management did not. Of course they let their players play just long enough in Buffalo in Week 17 to register a couple 100-reception seasons for Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. There's a message...
With a win on Sunday, would Peyton Manning be regarded as the greatest quarterback of all time? We've watched Manning play at an extremely high level this year, and he continues to make his case to be regarded as the best ever. Some already have the opinion that he is the best ever.
This is why sports magazines, and columnists, and radio stations are able to do what they do because like this question, so many things in sports are debateable. We take in and digest so many opinions and stats about these kinds of debates, that sometimes we forget to just watch and enjoy the game.
People are going to tune in this weekend, and not even be watching the game, which should be great. Every time the ball is snapped, people are going to worry about how that play contributes to Manning's legacy, or the story of the New Orleans Saints, or how Archie Manning is going to 'Manning-face' to a 'Manning-face', or whatever storyline or tagline the media has attached to this game.
And there's a reason why I've waited so long in this blog entry to mention the Saints: No one is talking about them.
Sure, they are mentioning them, but I don't think that anyone is really giving New Orleans a hope in hell to win this game on Sunday. Everyone has fallen in love with the Colts because of Peyton Manning. The wiseguys in Vegas love the Colts. The public loves the Colts. Everyone loves Peyton to win a second Super Bowl MVP. Everyone thinks the game is already over before it even starts.
Everyone keeps overlooking the Saints.
I'm not going to say that I think just because people are overlooking the Saints they are going to win on Sunday. But kids, we've been here before.
Have people forgotten that a perfect season was denied by the New York Giants just two years ago in the final game of the year? Have people forgotten that team was quarterbacked by Eli Manning? Have people forgotten that the greatest scoring offense OF ALL TIME was held to just 14 points in that Super Bowl?
Believe me, people might be out there saying "I'm not saying that the Saints can't win, I just don't think they will," just so that in the event the Saints do win, they can come back and say, "Yeah, see I knew they could win." What they are really thinking, is that one football player has become so good at playing the most important position in the sport, that the other team cannot stop his team.
Think about that for a second. Football is a team game, and while Peyton Manning is so damn good that he may in fact be able to win this game dissecting the Saints on every drive, things could happen that are out of his control to change that fate.
When Asante Samuel let a sure interception slip through his hands near the sidelines in Super Bowl XLII that would have clinched a perfect season, could Tom Brady do anything about that from the bench? When the Pats defensive line had Eli Manning wrapped up for what appeared to be a sure sack, to only let him escape and heave a ball downfield that was caught by a New York Giant on his friggin' helmet, could Brady do anything about it from the sidelines?
Peyton Manning can only do what he can. He can't make his running backs hold on to the ball. He can't prevent his receivers from potentially getting stripped of balls they've caught. He can't block for himself. He can't play defence, and he can't make plays in more than one place on the field.
Try to forget about the most recent work put out there by the Saints. Forget that they are considered to be lucky to be here after getting dominated for the most part at home against the Minnesota Vikings. Try to forget the loss to Dallas. Try to forget the loss to Tampa Bay. Try to forget Mark Brunell starting Week 17.
Remember the team you've watched all season long. Remember that both of these teams faced the Patriots at home this year. One team was an inch away from losing. The other team handed out a beating.
Remember 2007 when Brett Favre threw an interception in OT of the NFC Championship game that helped set up the game-winning field goal for the New York Giants. Remember that two weeks later the Giants went on to shock the world. Remember David Tyree. Wait, don't remember him? He's the dude who caught the first touchdown pass in Super Bowl XLII, caught the famous "on the helmet" ball, and never would catch another ball for the New York Giants ever again. Remember how sometimes, history can have a funny way of repeating itself.
Lets take out the season we've watched Peyton Manning have, and just take a look at Drew Brees: 4,388 passing yards, 34 touchdown passes (1st in the NFL), 70.6 % completion percentage (1st), sacked only 20 times (behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady who played as many games), and a 109.6 passer rating (1st).
And this guy and his team have no chance to win this football game? Do you know where Drew Brees won a high school championship? In the state of Texas. At that age, it doesn't get any more pressured than that. In college, he managed to get Purdue to the Rose Bowl. (For those of us that know a thing or two about college football, the Big 10 representative in the Rose Bowl is usually Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State). And here we are, in the NFL where he's taken the New Orleans Saints to their first Super Bowl.
If you look at most of the gambling metrics that professional sports gamblers look at (which I will not get into), most of the trends are positive for the Colts and are negative for the Saints. So it's not a surprise that people are in mad love with the Colts when you take those trends and couple them with the unbeatable Peyton Manning.
But if you take a look at the football numbers, some experts (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/) would say it's 50/50 and arguably one of the closest Super Bowl matchups in recent history.
Believe me, I've been pretty open with my hate for the Colts. It's not to say that I don't respect them. They've built this team through the draft, are experienced, and have been here before. After what I've seen from Manning this year, I will say that he's the best quarterback that I've ever seen play the position, with or without this Super Bowl. And while he is playing for more than just another ring this Sunday, he can't control every inch of the game.
Anyone who has watched football this year knows that the two best teams are playing in this game on Sunday, and there's not really a point to diving into the huge number of matchup questions that cloud over this game (because I dont get paid to do so). The point I'm trying to make, is that despite all the variables that come into winning a football game, people have done what they can to simplify it to one single matchup: Saints vs. Manning.
They discount all aforementioned factors beyond quarterback control, and even the motivational factors. Do people realize what era we live in? Do people think the Saints players don't read blogs or websites? Do we think they don't know that even though the public is being polite about it, they are being given virtually no shot to win? These guys have cell phones, text, talk, read ESPN.
It's one game. It's 60 minutes. It's for everything. And so far, it's been all about one man.
Motivation for the other guy? I'd say so. And you know me. I love intangibles.
Deacon's Prediction:
The Saints are going to have to score last. It's the only way I think they can win this game. And when the whole game is on the line and a field goal won't do, and the one man that cannot be stopped is standing on the sidelines, the little guy from Dallas, TX is going to march his league-best offense down the field for the game-winning touchdown, executing the plays called by his brilliant head coach.
I believe the Saints are going to win this game. I've been wrong for almost the entire playoffs, so who gives a shit if I'm wrong now. I'm not going to pick the Colts to try and jinx them so if they win I'll at least have picked right. Fuck that. I'm not going to make excuses if I'm wrong. I'm picking the Saints, and not just because I can be 'that guy' who said I told you so by making the bold prediction, when so many others are going the other way. This wasn't based on contrarian theory kids, it's just an example of it.
If this writing was meant to do anything, it was to convince you that considering all the factors that go into a football game, such a prediction should not be considered all that bold anyway.
Super Bowl XLIV: New Orleans 34, Indianapolis 31
- Deacon Touchback
Thursday, January 14, 2010
The Best Weekend of Football
Soooo, last week's picks were a bit of a train wreck. Apparently, I should stick to making picks in the regular season. If this week's picks are as brutal as last week's, then I think I may have to pack it in for the rest of the year.
First off, some thoughts from watching the games this past weekend:
- It turns out that the Bengals were the worst football team that was in the playoffs this year. The Bengals got out-coached, out-worked, and out-played by the New York Jets. Carson Palmer was horrible, the offensive play-calling looked as vanilla as it was in Week 17, and the Bengals could not make plays when they needed to. The lone bright spot was the play of Cedric Benson. Where was that kind of playoff production in the SuperBowl three years ago, Ced? Ok...I'll try not to go off on anymore Bears tangents for the rest of the post.
- Do you think that Shayne Graham has been possibly staying with his parents for the last week? If not, I'm sure he did the movie-like "call to the wife to get the kids out of the house and go to her mother's place". I'm sure he's the most hated person in that city right now. How do you miss those kicks?? A friend of mine who is a Bengals fan left me a voicemail after the game, asking me if I wanted to accompany him to Cincy to harm Graham. I didn't bring it up when I saw him later that night, but i did think to myself, "Only if we can make a pit-stop at Halas Hall..."
- Seems like playing good defence and being able to run the football actually still does count for something in the playoffs. Hmmm, I might need to stop reading Bill Simmons' columns on ESPN.com...
- Ok, so the Cowboys finally won a playoff game. Congratulations Cowboy fans. Now, I said that if they managed to win this game, then I would probably take them to end up getting to the SuperBowl. I'm still going to stand by that too. So all you fans better pray that I'm not 100% wrong like last week...
- I find it hilarious that Michael Vick played part in two of the three most important plays in the game for the Eagles. The touchdown pass to Jeremy Maclin which could have been the catalyst for a big momentum swing, IF he didn't fumble the ball the next time he was in the game on an exchange with FB Leonard Weaver. I guess he really was the X factor.
- Interestingly enough, the third play was the interception that got reversed on a great challenge by Wade Phillips. Great challenge by Wade Phillips. Sorry, I needed to type that out twice myself just to believe it.
- How about 'dem Ravens? That game was over in 5 minutes. It was a clinical beating. The Ravens are going to be a very tough out in the playoffs. They run the ball well, have two very good runningbacks, and use the play action pass very effectively. Oh, and they also go after the quarterback relentlessly and are not afraid to take penalties to send messages when they lay people out. They obviously take the personality of their leader. I'm not going to take that one where it could obviously go, so on a lighter note: Over under for 'Manning fetal position sacks' this week? Let's go 3.5.
- If anyone is still in doubt over whether or not Kurt Warner should be a first ballot hall-of-famer, then I think you're on crack. That performance on Sunday against Green Bay was unreal. Who throws more touchdowns than incompletions in a playoff game against one of the top ranked defences in the conference?? Say it out loud to yourself. He threw more touchdowns than incomplete passes. How does that happen? It seemed that he found the open receiver every single time. I absolutely love this guy.
- Speaking of receivers, I think that it's safe to say that Anquan Boldin is getting traded in the off-season. The world caught a glimpse of what the Cardinals can look like without Q, and performances like the ones they got from Steve Breaston and Early Doucet (my pick for the smoothest sounding name in the playoffs) lead one to believe that there wont necessarily be a huge dropoff in production in the passing game without him. So on one hand you like what you have in your backups if you are the Cards, but at the same time you would have loved to figure out this information without it hurting Q's trade value. Whatever, you can't win them all. Oh, and the heir apparent to this passing game is Matt Leinart...uhhhh, yeah...WIN NOW!!!
- Deacon's live play-call of the week: I might not be able to pick games, but I can sense when a kicker is going to blow a kick. When I saw Neil Rackers lined up on the right hash mark (while I was cooking on the BBQ...true story), I said to my old man who was in the room, "Dad, kicking across his body he's going to miss left." Now I didnt think Rackers was going to shank it so bad that the ball almost flew out of the left side of my TV screen, but hey, after last week's picks I'll take a win where I can get one.
- Just to make a comment on the game itself, I think that was the best playoff game I can remember watching. Honestly, how can it not be with all those points and over 1000 yards of offense? Then it goes to OT, and finished off with a defensive touchdown. By itself, it made up for all the bad that was contained in the previous three games played last weekend.
- Random final note: Aaron Rodgers was very close to ending that game on that deep pass that missed Greg Jennings in OT. Next year, he wont miss on plays like that. With that in mind, I think I'm going to bet the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC next year. Rodgers is going to get better, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley are going to have big statistical years, and despite some players on the defence likely departing (Nick Barnett; A.J. Hawk is also rumored to be moved), they will still have a very good unit on that side of the ball. Oh yeah, and they still play in the NFC North with the Bears and Lions. Not to mention, who the heck knows what's going to happen with Minnesota. They are my pick to win the NFC North next year, win 12 games, earn a first round bye as the second seed, and (due to next year's #1 seed in the NFC losing their only playoff game) winning the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field. You heard it here first...
And with bold statements come bold predictions for this week's games.
ARIZONA @ New Orleans
As of right now, Vegas is giving the Saints 7 points and I'm doing my best to figure out why. It's common knowledge that in football, the standard for the home team is 3 points right off the bat. But then we add 4 more points. If I was betting the spread in this game, I would obviously take the points with the Cardinals as I've picked them to win this game, but do the oddsmakers know something we don't?
The line leads me to believe that Anquan Boldin is going to miss this game as well with injury, and I'm not too sure if this is a trap game set by the books to entice the gambling public to start betting the Cardinals like crazy when they feel the Saints are going to roll. Either way, betting the Saints this weekend - much like trying to defend Kurt Warner properly - is a dicey proposition.
If the Saints can jump out to a substantial lead, then it might be tough for the Cards to come back. But, New Orleans hasn't played exceptional football since beating New England, and it's going to be a challenge for them to not come out flat in this game. The last thing that they want to do is turn the ball over early, and too many risks early on may backfire if that is their gameplan. Then again, playing it too safe may delay their offense from getting in sync early and putting up points. And let's face it, for either team to win this game, alot of points are needed.
It's hard to discount a team that was 13-0 at one point in the regular season, quaterbacked by one of the league's best in Drew Brees, but something about how they finished the season and losing two of their last three at home scare me a little bit. I'm going to roll with the Kurt Warner story until it dies, or meets a team that has enough talent and speed defensively to give the future hall-of-famer fits.
Arizona 34, New Orleans 30
Baltimore @ INDIANAPOLIS
Ok, so maybe because I don't particularly like the Colts, I'm taking them this week to jinx them. But let's take a look at the matchup before we pick a winner.
It goes without saying that the Colts were the best team in the regular season this year, and that is mainly due to the excellent play by Peyton Manning. I'm done taking shots at this guy because his performance speaks for itself. Watching some of the things he did this year, I'm going to have a tough time betting against the guy in a one game situation when it matters. Then again, this is the playoffs, and in those game in the playoffs, the Colts have been far from a sure thing.
It's going to be very interesting to see how Baltimore decides to pressure Manning in this game. Everybody knows that Manning is great at getting the ball out early. He rarely gets sacked, and is going to exploit the matchups in the Ravens' inferior secondary if they blitz too often. We should see alot of press coverage from the Ravens, who hope to get to Manning quickly with 3 and 4 men while their secondary tries to hold coverages. But they should also mix in some zone blitzes to try and force the Colts into some mistakes. Not only is scheme and disguise important, but when Manning goes into his no-huddle package, they better make sure that the right personnel is on the field. It's going to take an even better effort than last week from this Ravens defense and that's not going to be easy, but if the Ravens should know anything about the Colts (and this was evident when they won the Super Bowl 3 seasons ago), if you sit back and wait for Manning to beat you, he will.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens do very well to play to their strengths on offense. The Colts are undersized on defense, and the Ravens should use alot of run plays in between the tackles to minimize the impact that Dwight Freeny can have on this game. The key for the Ravens on offense will be to run the ball effectively for a number of reasons: Protecting Joe Flacco, setting up play-action pass opportunities, keeping the clock running, and leaving the Colts' offense on the sidelines for as much of the game as they can. One thing that helps the Ravens in this game is that they are ranked in the top third of the league in third-down conversion on offense, while the Colts rank 31st in the league in third-down defence. That stat is arguably the most important factor for the Ravens in this game, as it is paramount that they will be able to not only sustain long drives, but finish them off with touchdowns.
This game has the potential to be the best game of the weekend. It's a great matchup that may very well be decided on the last play of the game and picking a winner in this one is as difficult as they come. Spite pick to jinx? Possibly. But the Colts have had alot of success against the Ravens recently, and I think Baltimore is a little overmatched in the defensive passing game to keep the Colts from scoring enough points to win this game.
Indianapolis 27, Baltimore 20
DALLAS @ Minnesota
I'm not sure what it is, but I think this weekend we're going to see alot of points scored in these games, and this one should be no different. The Vikings are getting 2.5 from Vegas at home right now, and it's probably right where the line should be. This game will probably go back and forth, and should have no shortage of big plays considering the talent that both teams have in all phases of the game.
Minnesota was spinning its tires a little at the end of the season before romping the New York Giants at home in Week 17. They ought to be well-rested after getting last week off from Brad Childress, but hey, so should the Cowboys after the beatings they gave the Eagles in the past two weeks.
The battle in the trenches is going to be very interesting to watch in this game. While Minnesota boasts the better offensive line, the Cowboys front seven is big, fast, and has been playing great football in recent weeks. On the other side, Dallas will have its hands full with DT Jared Allen in pass protection. Dallas LT Flozel Adams is probably the weakest link on the Dallas offensive line, and Dallas will probably call alot of run plays to the left side to keep Allen in run defence where he may get worn down and become less effective.
Both offenses have alot of weapons to work with, and is why I think there will be alot of points scored in this one too. Not to mention that in the special teams game, Percy Harvin and Patrick Crayton both have multiple touchdown returns this season.
The Cowboys are red hot right now, and when big and talented teams catch fire and gain confidence, watch out. But the Vikings and the power of the old man will have something to say about that while trying to protect their home field.
I'm rolling with the Cowboys not only because I said I would, but because I believe they are playing the best football of any team in the league right now, and are a bad matchup for the Vikings.
Dallas 33, Minnesota 27
New York Jets @ SAN DIEGO
As interesting as this matchup is because of the contrasting styles of play, I think this game might actually turn out to be the worst of the four games this week, and not just because the Jets play ugly football. There has been alot of talk in the media by Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan about them getting to the Super Bowl and blah blah blah, but I think that San Diego has too much in the passing game for them to handle.
They are faced with the task of heading into San Diego and stopping a lethal air attack with multiple weapons. The Jets will probably have a pretty simple game plan on Sunday: Run the ball and keep the San Diego passing game in check. The latter is easier said than done. All-Pro CB Darelle Revis will matchup against Pro-bowl WR Vincent Jackson, leaving the rest of San Diego's receivers with the responsibility of picking up the slack. WRs Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are going to have to step up and make plays when Jackson is marooned on Revis island.
San Diego TE Antonio Gates figures to be the X factor in the passing game, as he is a matchup nightmare for linebackers and safeties because of his size, speed, and athleticism. It's going to be a challenge for QB Phillip Rivers to connect with Jackson on many vertical routes, so sending him in crossing patterns in the middle of the field might open things up for Gates to work on smaller safeties and slower linebackers in the flats, especially when the Jets decide to blitz. But don't think that the Chargers are going to all of a sudden stop taking shots down the field. Don't be surprised if Rivers and Jackson still connect on a play or two deep because there is no better deep-ball conncection in tight coverage than Rivers to Jackson.
I think the Jets can keep this game close early on but are not going to do enough offensively to ever pull away and put pressure on San Diego by getting ahead.
San Diego 27, New York 20
That's it folks! I hope everyone enjoys the best weekend of the year in the NFL season. I wanna end this week's post with a shout out to my boy who is moving back home this weekend from the west coast.
Welcome home Sagres.
- Deacon Touchback
First off, some thoughts from watching the games this past weekend:
- It turns out that the Bengals were the worst football team that was in the playoffs this year. The Bengals got out-coached, out-worked, and out-played by the New York Jets. Carson Palmer was horrible, the offensive play-calling looked as vanilla as it was in Week 17, and the Bengals could not make plays when they needed to. The lone bright spot was the play of Cedric Benson. Where was that kind of playoff production in the SuperBowl three years ago, Ced? Ok...I'll try not to go off on anymore Bears tangents for the rest of the post.
- Do you think that Shayne Graham has been possibly staying with his parents for the last week? If not, I'm sure he did the movie-like "call to the wife to get the kids out of the house and go to her mother's place". I'm sure he's the most hated person in that city right now. How do you miss those kicks?? A friend of mine who is a Bengals fan left me a voicemail after the game, asking me if I wanted to accompany him to Cincy to harm Graham. I didn't bring it up when I saw him later that night, but i did think to myself, "Only if we can make a pit-stop at Halas Hall..."
- Seems like playing good defence and being able to run the football actually still does count for something in the playoffs. Hmmm, I might need to stop reading Bill Simmons' columns on ESPN.com...
- Ok, so the Cowboys finally won a playoff game. Congratulations Cowboy fans. Now, I said that if they managed to win this game, then I would probably take them to end up getting to the SuperBowl. I'm still going to stand by that too. So all you fans better pray that I'm not 100% wrong like last week...
- I find it hilarious that Michael Vick played part in two of the three most important plays in the game for the Eagles. The touchdown pass to Jeremy Maclin which could have been the catalyst for a big momentum swing, IF he didn't fumble the ball the next time he was in the game on an exchange with FB Leonard Weaver. I guess he really was the X factor.
- Interestingly enough, the third play was the interception that got reversed on a great challenge by Wade Phillips. Great challenge by Wade Phillips. Sorry, I needed to type that out twice myself just to believe it.
- How about 'dem Ravens? That game was over in 5 minutes. It was a clinical beating. The Ravens are going to be a very tough out in the playoffs. They run the ball well, have two very good runningbacks, and use the play action pass very effectively. Oh, and they also go after the quarterback relentlessly and are not afraid to take penalties to send messages when they lay people out. They obviously take the personality of their leader. I'm not going to take that one where it could obviously go, so on a lighter note: Over under for 'Manning fetal position sacks' this week? Let's go 3.5.
- If anyone is still in doubt over whether or not Kurt Warner should be a first ballot hall-of-famer, then I think you're on crack. That performance on Sunday against Green Bay was unreal. Who throws more touchdowns than incompletions in a playoff game against one of the top ranked defences in the conference?? Say it out loud to yourself. He threw more touchdowns than incomplete passes. How does that happen? It seemed that he found the open receiver every single time. I absolutely love this guy.
- Speaking of receivers, I think that it's safe to say that Anquan Boldin is getting traded in the off-season. The world caught a glimpse of what the Cardinals can look like without Q, and performances like the ones they got from Steve Breaston and Early Doucet (my pick for the smoothest sounding name in the playoffs) lead one to believe that there wont necessarily be a huge dropoff in production in the passing game without him. So on one hand you like what you have in your backups if you are the Cards, but at the same time you would have loved to figure out this information without it hurting Q's trade value. Whatever, you can't win them all. Oh, and the heir apparent to this passing game is Matt Leinart...uhhhh, yeah...WIN NOW!!!
- Deacon's live play-call of the week: I might not be able to pick games, but I can sense when a kicker is going to blow a kick. When I saw Neil Rackers lined up on the right hash mark (while I was cooking on the BBQ...true story), I said to my old man who was in the room, "Dad, kicking across his body he's going to miss left." Now I didnt think Rackers was going to shank it so bad that the ball almost flew out of the left side of my TV screen, but hey, after last week's picks I'll take a win where I can get one.
- Just to make a comment on the game itself, I think that was the best playoff game I can remember watching. Honestly, how can it not be with all those points and over 1000 yards of offense? Then it goes to OT, and finished off with a defensive touchdown. By itself, it made up for all the bad that was contained in the previous three games played last weekend.
- Random final note: Aaron Rodgers was very close to ending that game on that deep pass that missed Greg Jennings in OT. Next year, he wont miss on plays like that. With that in mind, I think I'm going to bet the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC next year. Rodgers is going to get better, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley are going to have big statistical years, and despite some players on the defence likely departing (Nick Barnett; A.J. Hawk is also rumored to be moved), they will still have a very good unit on that side of the ball. Oh yeah, and they still play in the NFC North with the Bears and Lions. Not to mention, who the heck knows what's going to happen with Minnesota. They are my pick to win the NFC North next year, win 12 games, earn a first round bye as the second seed, and (due to next year's #1 seed in the NFC losing their only playoff game) winning the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field. You heard it here first...
And with bold statements come bold predictions for this week's games.
ARIZONA @ New Orleans
As of right now, Vegas is giving the Saints 7 points and I'm doing my best to figure out why. It's common knowledge that in football, the standard for the home team is 3 points right off the bat. But then we add 4 more points. If I was betting the spread in this game, I would obviously take the points with the Cardinals as I've picked them to win this game, but do the oddsmakers know something we don't?
The line leads me to believe that Anquan Boldin is going to miss this game as well with injury, and I'm not too sure if this is a trap game set by the books to entice the gambling public to start betting the Cardinals like crazy when they feel the Saints are going to roll. Either way, betting the Saints this weekend - much like trying to defend Kurt Warner properly - is a dicey proposition.
If the Saints can jump out to a substantial lead, then it might be tough for the Cards to come back. But, New Orleans hasn't played exceptional football since beating New England, and it's going to be a challenge for them to not come out flat in this game. The last thing that they want to do is turn the ball over early, and too many risks early on may backfire if that is their gameplan. Then again, playing it too safe may delay their offense from getting in sync early and putting up points. And let's face it, for either team to win this game, alot of points are needed.
It's hard to discount a team that was 13-0 at one point in the regular season, quaterbacked by one of the league's best in Drew Brees, but something about how they finished the season and losing two of their last three at home scare me a little bit. I'm going to roll with the Kurt Warner story until it dies, or meets a team that has enough talent and speed defensively to give the future hall-of-famer fits.
Arizona 34, New Orleans 30
Baltimore @ INDIANAPOLIS
Ok, so maybe because I don't particularly like the Colts, I'm taking them this week to jinx them. But let's take a look at the matchup before we pick a winner.
It goes without saying that the Colts were the best team in the regular season this year, and that is mainly due to the excellent play by Peyton Manning. I'm done taking shots at this guy because his performance speaks for itself. Watching some of the things he did this year, I'm going to have a tough time betting against the guy in a one game situation when it matters. Then again, this is the playoffs, and in those game in the playoffs, the Colts have been far from a sure thing.
It's going to be very interesting to see how Baltimore decides to pressure Manning in this game. Everybody knows that Manning is great at getting the ball out early. He rarely gets sacked, and is going to exploit the matchups in the Ravens' inferior secondary if they blitz too often. We should see alot of press coverage from the Ravens, who hope to get to Manning quickly with 3 and 4 men while their secondary tries to hold coverages. But they should also mix in some zone blitzes to try and force the Colts into some mistakes. Not only is scheme and disguise important, but when Manning goes into his no-huddle package, they better make sure that the right personnel is on the field. It's going to take an even better effort than last week from this Ravens defense and that's not going to be easy, but if the Ravens should know anything about the Colts (and this was evident when they won the Super Bowl 3 seasons ago), if you sit back and wait for Manning to beat you, he will.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens do very well to play to their strengths on offense. The Colts are undersized on defense, and the Ravens should use alot of run plays in between the tackles to minimize the impact that Dwight Freeny can have on this game. The key for the Ravens on offense will be to run the ball effectively for a number of reasons: Protecting Joe Flacco, setting up play-action pass opportunities, keeping the clock running, and leaving the Colts' offense on the sidelines for as much of the game as they can. One thing that helps the Ravens in this game is that they are ranked in the top third of the league in third-down conversion on offense, while the Colts rank 31st in the league in third-down defence. That stat is arguably the most important factor for the Ravens in this game, as it is paramount that they will be able to not only sustain long drives, but finish them off with touchdowns.
This game has the potential to be the best game of the weekend. It's a great matchup that may very well be decided on the last play of the game and picking a winner in this one is as difficult as they come. Spite pick to jinx? Possibly. But the Colts have had alot of success against the Ravens recently, and I think Baltimore is a little overmatched in the defensive passing game to keep the Colts from scoring enough points to win this game.
Indianapolis 27, Baltimore 20
DALLAS @ Minnesota
I'm not sure what it is, but I think this weekend we're going to see alot of points scored in these games, and this one should be no different. The Vikings are getting 2.5 from Vegas at home right now, and it's probably right where the line should be. This game will probably go back and forth, and should have no shortage of big plays considering the talent that both teams have in all phases of the game.
Minnesota was spinning its tires a little at the end of the season before romping the New York Giants at home in Week 17. They ought to be well-rested after getting last week off from Brad Childress, but hey, so should the Cowboys after the beatings they gave the Eagles in the past two weeks.
The battle in the trenches is going to be very interesting to watch in this game. While Minnesota boasts the better offensive line, the Cowboys front seven is big, fast, and has been playing great football in recent weeks. On the other side, Dallas will have its hands full with DT Jared Allen in pass protection. Dallas LT Flozel Adams is probably the weakest link on the Dallas offensive line, and Dallas will probably call alot of run plays to the left side to keep Allen in run defence where he may get worn down and become less effective.
Both offenses have alot of weapons to work with, and is why I think there will be alot of points scored in this one too. Not to mention that in the special teams game, Percy Harvin and Patrick Crayton both have multiple touchdown returns this season.
The Cowboys are red hot right now, and when big and talented teams catch fire and gain confidence, watch out. But the Vikings and the power of the old man will have something to say about that while trying to protect their home field.
I'm rolling with the Cowboys not only because I said I would, but because I believe they are playing the best football of any team in the league right now, and are a bad matchup for the Vikings.
Dallas 33, Minnesota 27
New York Jets @ SAN DIEGO
As interesting as this matchup is because of the contrasting styles of play, I think this game might actually turn out to be the worst of the four games this week, and not just because the Jets play ugly football. There has been alot of talk in the media by Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan about them getting to the Super Bowl and blah blah blah, but I think that San Diego has too much in the passing game for them to handle.
They are faced with the task of heading into San Diego and stopping a lethal air attack with multiple weapons. The Jets will probably have a pretty simple game plan on Sunday: Run the ball and keep the San Diego passing game in check. The latter is easier said than done. All-Pro CB Darelle Revis will matchup against Pro-bowl WR Vincent Jackson, leaving the rest of San Diego's receivers with the responsibility of picking up the slack. WRs Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are going to have to step up and make plays when Jackson is marooned on Revis island.
San Diego TE Antonio Gates figures to be the X factor in the passing game, as he is a matchup nightmare for linebackers and safeties because of his size, speed, and athleticism. It's going to be a challenge for QB Phillip Rivers to connect with Jackson on many vertical routes, so sending him in crossing patterns in the middle of the field might open things up for Gates to work on smaller safeties and slower linebackers in the flats, especially when the Jets decide to blitz. But don't think that the Chargers are going to all of a sudden stop taking shots down the field. Don't be surprised if Rivers and Jackson still connect on a play or two deep because there is no better deep-ball conncection in tight coverage than Rivers to Jackson.
I think the Jets can keep this game close early on but are not going to do enough offensively to ever pull away and put pressure on San Diego by getting ahead.
San Diego 27, New York 20
That's it folks! I hope everyone enjoys the best weekend of the year in the NFL season. I wanna end this week's post with a shout out to my boy who is moving back home this weekend from the west coast.
Welcome home Sagres.
- Deacon Touchback
Friday, January 8, 2010
Divisional Weekend Part 1
As I wrote yesterday, there were 5 main stories or themes that dominated most of the talk of the season this year. I may have left out a few (Michael Vick, Andre Johnson becoming the second player in NFL history to notch back to back seasons with 1500+ receiving yards, the utter stupidity of Washington Redskins head coach Jim Zorn, and the large number of really crappy football teams this year) but those were the ones that seemed to jump out.
Similarly, the upcoming playoff games this weekend are not without their share of storylines or themes, and here’s what people should be following or paying attention to. Aside from the games themselves, of course.
Rematches from Week 17 – For the first time in my life, three of the four first round playoff matchups are repeats of games played the week before. Green Bay travels to Arizona for the second straight week, and Philadelphia heads out to Dallas for another showdown in Texas stadium. The only difference between the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals matchup is that this week’s tilt will be in Ohio. It’s an intriguing dynamic that’s added to this year’s playoffs because in two of those three matchups from last week, the Bengals and Cardinals really had nothing to play for. It will be interesting to see what effect this will have on these teams in the one-and-done format of the playoffs and add fuel to the fire on whether or not it’s really worth it to rest players in the closing weeks of the season.
Baby, it’s … not cold…Outside? – Looking ahead to next week’s games, weather should not be a factor. I say ‘should’ because I don’t really anticipate bad weather in San Diego next week, and all three other games will be played inside domes (Indianapolis, Minnesota, and New Orleans all will play at home in their dome stadiums). Teams with home field advantages in this year’s playoffs will be without any kind of relative weather advantage which can be argued as a good or bad thing. 4 out of the 6 NFC playoff teams reside in dome stadiums compared to just 1 (Indianapolis) out of 6 in the AFC. As it looks right now, weather probably will not be a factor in playoff matchups past this week, unless we see an upset or two next week in the AFC.
The Great Potential Injury Debate – Before last week’s games, the majority of this paragraph would have probably just talked about the Indianapolis Colts and their strategy to rest their players in the last two weeks of the season and blow a chance at a perfect season. And then, some people got hurt last week in meaningless games…
Last week in Houston, New England WR Wes Welker, who many refer to as the heart and soul of their offense, suffered a knee injury on their first drive of the game. Welker caught his first and only pass of the game and tore the MCL and ACL in his left knee while trying to make a cut in the open field and will miss the remainder of the season.
Later in the day in Arizona, Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin suffered a left ankle sprain and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie left the game with a bruised left knee cap. Rodgers-Cromartie returned to practice yesterday, but Boldin remained sidelined. It is unknown whether or not Boldin will play, but knowing how much of a warrior he is, I think he’ll be in there. Either way, these injuries may hamper both players this week in the game that actually matters.
Even Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco managed to tweak his knee in pregame warmups and did not play in the second half of their game against the New York Jets. An MRI came back negative on Monday, and the only thing that is probably hurting Chad is his ego after getting shut down by Jets DB Darelle Revis.
When all is said and done, there will be some evidence as to whether or not it really is in the best interest of teams to sacrifice some of their ‘groove’ late in the season in meaningless games when heading into the playoffs in exchange for peace of mind by resting key players and limiting injury risk.
Super Bowl Crown Leaving Steel Town – Finally, with the Pittsburgh Steelers failing to make the playoffs this year, their title defence was cut short of the post-season this year, and the NFL will see a new champion this season. What remains to be seen of course, is who the new champion will be. But, we’ll know in 5 short weeks.
And so…On to the picks. Picks based on intangibles and gut feeling? You betcha! Heck, it’s how I won the NFL picks pool I was in. No sense in stopping now, right?
CINCINATTI over New York
My good friends who are Bengals fans should love me for this pick, but it probably will be the last time I take the Bengals to win this year. That’s either because they will lose this game and not be around to pick again, or they win and run into the Indianapolis Colts’ buzz saw next week. Either way, let’s do this one last time Bengals!
I know that because they are a team from New York getting a lot of buzz in the media and find themselves in the post-season after beating the second teams of both the Colts and Bengals, most people are going to pick the Jets in this game. But people are quick to forget that this team has ended off the season with Carolina (the last we saw of Jake Delhomme and his 4-INT performances), Buffalo (6-10), Atlanta (which they lost at home and only scored 7 points), and the backups as previously mentioned.
What is it that is so enticing about this team to go on the road, with a rookie QB, in cold climate (which their QB obviously is struggling with)? I honestly have no idea. They may have the league’s best defence, but they will need to make plays in the passing game to win. I’m not so sure that they will be able to. Let’s not forget that the Bengals have a pretty good defence as well. Their plan will be simple, and similar to that of the Atlanta Falcons in Week 14: Stop the run and make Mark Sanchez beat them.
He wont.
Bengals 19, Jets 13
PHILADELPHIA over Dallas
I know a few people that are not going to like this pick, but I’ve been wrong before. If you’re looking for an intangible pick, then here it comes.
There is probably no team (aside from the San Diego Chargers) that is playing as well as the Dallas Cowboys are right now. This is a team that ended the perfect season of the New Orleans Saints, had their way with the NFC East’s ragdoll (Washington), and beat the Eagles last week to win the division! Not to mention, those last two wins were shutouts (the first time the team ever has recorded back-to-back shutouts).
So why am I picking against them? Because this is typical ‘switcheroo’ type stuff. Wade Phillips probably threw everything at the Eagles last week to win, and now Andy Reid is sitting in his office thinking, “I’ve got you now, idiot.” Plus, aren’t the Cowboys perfectly setting their fans up for another playoff disappointment? I say, Aye!
Are they Cowboys more talented? Yep. Are they playing better? Yep. Are they a better team? I’ve been convinced that they are.
The problem is that the Eagles are the worst kind of matchup for the Cowboys. Their big-play ability is what can put them up early putting even more pressure on the hometown ‘Boys. But, it will win them this game or be their kryptonite. If the Eagles get hot, watch out. If they don’t, this game will probably be over early like last week.
Plus, the Eagles typically have games like last week, but then follow them up with solid efforts the week after, which tends to follow the play of their QB Donovan McNabb. Their blunder this year? A loss in Oakland, who played spoiler to many teams this year. Sure, the Redskins the following week would have cured a lot of things for a lot of teams, but the big win came in a 40-17 beating of the Giants two weeks after the bad loss to the Raiders. And remember what happened last year after the famous tie against the Bengals? Right, they squeak into the playoffs and end up in the NFC Championship game almost coming back to beat Arizona.
This team goes up and down. Last week they were down. Guess where they’ll be this week?
They’ve been here before. They know what’s at stake. They know how to win these games. If we look at recent history, the Cowboys know how to lose these games, not win them. We’ve all been waiting for something to go wrong for the Cowboys since signing former Washington place kicker Shaun Suisham, too. It hasn’t happened yet. Yet..
There is too much pressure on the Cowboys. Too much pressure on the QB, coach, city, organization. And two nights after the state of Texas watched the University of Texas lose in the National Championship to the Alabama Crimson Tide, so too will they watch their beloved Cowboys end their season prematurely yet again.
Then again, I think if they win this game they take this show all the way to the Super Bowl. I just don’t think they do.
And that’s how I’m making this pick. Oh, and if I’m right, Cowboy fans should not be too sad. Rumor has it that if they lose that’s the final straw for Wade Phillips and they are courting Tennessee Head Coach Jeff Fischer. Dude, in the NFL coaching world, that’s like upgrading from a Honda to a BMW.
Eagles 31, Cowboys 27
NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore
The big story in this game is how the Patriots are going to be able to deal with the loss of WR Wes Welker. At first glance, most people will think that this is going to completely hault the offence because the Ravens will double team Randy Moss and make Welker’s backup (Julian Edelman, aka Mini-Welker) beat them. In reality, aside from experience and little bit of grit, the Patriots are not losing too much in terms of production. And we all know that Tom Brady spent a lot of time this week getting on the same page with Edelman.
I’m picking the Patriots for two reasons, and I know I’m ignoring that the Ravens probably should have beaten the Patriots earlier in the year.
The first reason is because the Ravens have a young QB and are on the road in the playoffs. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco started out the year red hot but has cooled off in the second half of the season. Yes, his WRs dropped some pretty catchable balls (Ok, VERY catchable balls) but the Ravens are not a passing team. I know this, which means the Patriots know this, and if you’ve watched football for the last 10 years, you know that New England coach Bill Belichek does one thing all the time: He takes what you do well, stops it, and makes you beat his team another way. Either you can beat the Patriots with your left hand (or right hand if you’re left-handed…), or you lose. Simple.
One idea that people have to get out of their minds is the idea that goes, “to be a good team in this league you need to be able to play good defence and be able to run the football”. Uhhh look at which teams are the top seeds in each conference…Indianapolis and San Diego in the AFC: Both can’t run the ball effectively and are not exactly great on defence. New Orleans and Minnesota in the NFC: Both have been getting good play from their defences but both have had their struggles with running the football and play their best when they are passing the ball well. I’m not trying to lump all 4 of these teams into one category, but they all have one thing in common: They all have Pro Bowl QBs and very good passing games.
Guess who has another one of those Pro Bowl QBs in this game? I’ll give you one guess, and it’s not Baltimore.
Finally, the matchup combined with heading on the road does not bode well for the Ravens. Home field isn’t really much of an advantage anymore in the “Buisiness Suite Stadium/Plasma TV Era” of sports, but New England has Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and a coach that loves to throw the ball against a team whose weakness defensively is in the passing game. Oh, and take a look at recent history. The Patriots are never an easy out in the playoffs. They have either missed the playoffs, won the Super Bowl, or have lost because of great comebacks triggered by questionable officiating (See Colts 2006) or miraculous circus catches on the helmet by players who get cut by their teams the following season (See Giants 2007).
Patriots 27, Ravens 20
GREEN BAY over Arizona
Another upset pick in the NFC! How cheeky of me?
My pick here is pretty simple. Remember after the Packers got killed by Minnesota earlier in the year and everyone (including myself) wrote them off and forgot about them? Well this team has turned it around in a big way. The offense is clicking on all cylinders, and the defence has been playing lights out, particularly in the secondary.
I’m not completely writing off Arizona, but they played in such a weak division this year that they haven’t really had anything to play for in the last five weeks. That is either a really bad thing or a good thing if they’ve been able to get some rest and work some kinks out before the playoffs, but if last week’s loss to the Packers was any indication of which of those two it is, I think it’s the former.
Oh, and for my intangible portion to this pick, it’s obvious (but hinges on a Philadelphia win and is part of the reason why I pick the Eagles to beat Dallas). Don’t you think that the NFL would love a matchup next week between the Packers and the Vikings Pt III? The Old Man vs. Green Bay to get to the NFC Championship? The Packers with a chance for revenge. Brett Favre with a chance to stick it to Green Bay for the third time in one season? I can picture it now. The Vikings get a week off from the head coach, then watch the Eagles and Packers win to then realize…Oh crap! We only have one week to prepare for Favre Revenge!!! The entire world would stop in Green Bay until the game was played. You can’t script what kind of story this would be.
Packers 27, Cardinals 24
- Deacon Touchback
Similarly, the upcoming playoff games this weekend are not without their share of storylines or themes, and here’s what people should be following or paying attention to. Aside from the games themselves, of course.
Rematches from Week 17 – For the first time in my life, three of the four first round playoff matchups are repeats of games played the week before. Green Bay travels to Arizona for the second straight week, and Philadelphia heads out to Dallas for another showdown in Texas stadium. The only difference between the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals matchup is that this week’s tilt will be in Ohio. It’s an intriguing dynamic that’s added to this year’s playoffs because in two of those three matchups from last week, the Bengals and Cardinals really had nothing to play for. It will be interesting to see what effect this will have on these teams in the one-and-done format of the playoffs and add fuel to the fire on whether or not it’s really worth it to rest players in the closing weeks of the season.
Baby, it’s … not cold…Outside? – Looking ahead to next week’s games, weather should not be a factor. I say ‘should’ because I don’t really anticipate bad weather in San Diego next week, and all three other games will be played inside domes (Indianapolis, Minnesota, and New Orleans all will play at home in their dome stadiums). Teams with home field advantages in this year’s playoffs will be without any kind of relative weather advantage which can be argued as a good or bad thing. 4 out of the 6 NFC playoff teams reside in dome stadiums compared to just 1 (Indianapolis) out of 6 in the AFC. As it looks right now, weather probably will not be a factor in playoff matchups past this week, unless we see an upset or two next week in the AFC.
The Great Potential Injury Debate – Before last week’s games, the majority of this paragraph would have probably just talked about the Indianapolis Colts and their strategy to rest their players in the last two weeks of the season and blow a chance at a perfect season. And then, some people got hurt last week in meaningless games…
Last week in Houston, New England WR Wes Welker, who many refer to as the heart and soul of their offense, suffered a knee injury on their first drive of the game. Welker caught his first and only pass of the game and tore the MCL and ACL in his left knee while trying to make a cut in the open field and will miss the remainder of the season.
Later in the day in Arizona, Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin suffered a left ankle sprain and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie left the game with a bruised left knee cap. Rodgers-Cromartie returned to practice yesterday, but Boldin remained sidelined. It is unknown whether or not Boldin will play, but knowing how much of a warrior he is, I think he’ll be in there. Either way, these injuries may hamper both players this week in the game that actually matters.
Even Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco managed to tweak his knee in pregame warmups and did not play in the second half of their game against the New York Jets. An MRI came back negative on Monday, and the only thing that is probably hurting Chad is his ego after getting shut down by Jets DB Darelle Revis.
When all is said and done, there will be some evidence as to whether or not it really is in the best interest of teams to sacrifice some of their ‘groove’ late in the season in meaningless games when heading into the playoffs in exchange for peace of mind by resting key players and limiting injury risk.
Super Bowl Crown Leaving Steel Town – Finally, with the Pittsburgh Steelers failing to make the playoffs this year, their title defence was cut short of the post-season this year, and the NFL will see a new champion this season. What remains to be seen of course, is who the new champion will be. But, we’ll know in 5 short weeks.
And so…On to the picks. Picks based on intangibles and gut feeling? You betcha! Heck, it’s how I won the NFL picks pool I was in. No sense in stopping now, right?
CINCINATTI over New York
My good friends who are Bengals fans should love me for this pick, but it probably will be the last time I take the Bengals to win this year. That’s either because they will lose this game and not be around to pick again, or they win and run into the Indianapolis Colts’ buzz saw next week. Either way, let’s do this one last time Bengals!
I know that because they are a team from New York getting a lot of buzz in the media and find themselves in the post-season after beating the second teams of both the Colts and Bengals, most people are going to pick the Jets in this game. But people are quick to forget that this team has ended off the season with Carolina (the last we saw of Jake Delhomme and his 4-INT performances), Buffalo (6-10), Atlanta (which they lost at home and only scored 7 points), and the backups as previously mentioned.
What is it that is so enticing about this team to go on the road, with a rookie QB, in cold climate (which their QB obviously is struggling with)? I honestly have no idea. They may have the league’s best defence, but they will need to make plays in the passing game to win. I’m not so sure that they will be able to. Let’s not forget that the Bengals have a pretty good defence as well. Their plan will be simple, and similar to that of the Atlanta Falcons in Week 14: Stop the run and make Mark Sanchez beat them.
He wont.
Bengals 19, Jets 13
PHILADELPHIA over Dallas
I know a few people that are not going to like this pick, but I’ve been wrong before. If you’re looking for an intangible pick, then here it comes.
There is probably no team (aside from the San Diego Chargers) that is playing as well as the Dallas Cowboys are right now. This is a team that ended the perfect season of the New Orleans Saints, had their way with the NFC East’s ragdoll (Washington), and beat the Eagles last week to win the division! Not to mention, those last two wins were shutouts (the first time the team ever has recorded back-to-back shutouts).
So why am I picking against them? Because this is typical ‘switcheroo’ type stuff. Wade Phillips probably threw everything at the Eagles last week to win, and now Andy Reid is sitting in his office thinking, “I’ve got you now, idiot.” Plus, aren’t the Cowboys perfectly setting their fans up for another playoff disappointment? I say, Aye!
Are they Cowboys more talented? Yep. Are they playing better? Yep. Are they a better team? I’ve been convinced that they are.
The problem is that the Eagles are the worst kind of matchup for the Cowboys. Their big-play ability is what can put them up early putting even more pressure on the hometown ‘Boys. But, it will win them this game or be their kryptonite. If the Eagles get hot, watch out. If they don’t, this game will probably be over early like last week.
Plus, the Eagles typically have games like last week, but then follow them up with solid efforts the week after, which tends to follow the play of their QB Donovan McNabb. Their blunder this year? A loss in Oakland, who played spoiler to many teams this year. Sure, the Redskins the following week would have cured a lot of things for a lot of teams, but the big win came in a 40-17 beating of the Giants two weeks after the bad loss to the Raiders. And remember what happened last year after the famous tie against the Bengals? Right, they squeak into the playoffs and end up in the NFC Championship game almost coming back to beat Arizona.
This team goes up and down. Last week they were down. Guess where they’ll be this week?
They’ve been here before. They know what’s at stake. They know how to win these games. If we look at recent history, the Cowboys know how to lose these games, not win them. We’ve all been waiting for something to go wrong for the Cowboys since signing former Washington place kicker Shaun Suisham, too. It hasn’t happened yet. Yet..
There is too much pressure on the Cowboys. Too much pressure on the QB, coach, city, organization. And two nights after the state of Texas watched the University of Texas lose in the National Championship to the Alabama Crimson Tide, so too will they watch their beloved Cowboys end their season prematurely yet again.
Then again, I think if they win this game they take this show all the way to the Super Bowl. I just don’t think they do.
And that’s how I’m making this pick. Oh, and if I’m right, Cowboy fans should not be too sad. Rumor has it that if they lose that’s the final straw for Wade Phillips and they are courting Tennessee Head Coach Jeff Fischer. Dude, in the NFL coaching world, that’s like upgrading from a Honda to a BMW.
Eagles 31, Cowboys 27
NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore
The big story in this game is how the Patriots are going to be able to deal with the loss of WR Wes Welker. At first glance, most people will think that this is going to completely hault the offence because the Ravens will double team Randy Moss and make Welker’s backup (Julian Edelman, aka Mini-Welker) beat them. In reality, aside from experience and little bit of grit, the Patriots are not losing too much in terms of production. And we all know that Tom Brady spent a lot of time this week getting on the same page with Edelman.
I’m picking the Patriots for two reasons, and I know I’m ignoring that the Ravens probably should have beaten the Patriots earlier in the year.
The first reason is because the Ravens have a young QB and are on the road in the playoffs. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco started out the year red hot but has cooled off in the second half of the season. Yes, his WRs dropped some pretty catchable balls (Ok, VERY catchable balls) but the Ravens are not a passing team. I know this, which means the Patriots know this, and if you’ve watched football for the last 10 years, you know that New England coach Bill Belichek does one thing all the time: He takes what you do well, stops it, and makes you beat his team another way. Either you can beat the Patriots with your left hand (or right hand if you’re left-handed…), or you lose. Simple.
One idea that people have to get out of their minds is the idea that goes, “to be a good team in this league you need to be able to play good defence and be able to run the football”. Uhhh look at which teams are the top seeds in each conference…Indianapolis and San Diego in the AFC: Both can’t run the ball effectively and are not exactly great on defence. New Orleans and Minnesota in the NFC: Both have been getting good play from their defences but both have had their struggles with running the football and play their best when they are passing the ball well. I’m not trying to lump all 4 of these teams into one category, but they all have one thing in common: They all have Pro Bowl QBs and very good passing games.
Guess who has another one of those Pro Bowl QBs in this game? I’ll give you one guess, and it’s not Baltimore.
Finally, the matchup combined with heading on the road does not bode well for the Ravens. Home field isn’t really much of an advantage anymore in the “Buisiness Suite Stadium/Plasma TV Era” of sports, but New England has Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and a coach that loves to throw the ball against a team whose weakness defensively is in the passing game. Oh, and take a look at recent history. The Patriots are never an easy out in the playoffs. They have either missed the playoffs, won the Super Bowl, or have lost because of great comebacks triggered by questionable officiating (See Colts 2006) or miraculous circus catches on the helmet by players who get cut by their teams the following season (See Giants 2007).
Patriots 27, Ravens 20
GREEN BAY over Arizona
Another upset pick in the NFC! How cheeky of me?
My pick here is pretty simple. Remember after the Packers got killed by Minnesota earlier in the year and everyone (including myself) wrote them off and forgot about them? Well this team has turned it around in a big way. The offense is clicking on all cylinders, and the defence has been playing lights out, particularly in the secondary.
I’m not completely writing off Arizona, but they played in such a weak division this year that they haven’t really had anything to play for in the last five weeks. That is either a really bad thing or a good thing if they’ve been able to get some rest and work some kinks out before the playoffs, but if last week’s loss to the Packers was any indication of which of those two it is, I think it’s the former.
Oh, and for my intangible portion to this pick, it’s obvious (but hinges on a Philadelphia win and is part of the reason why I pick the Eagles to beat Dallas). Don’t you think that the NFL would love a matchup next week between the Packers and the Vikings Pt III? The Old Man vs. Green Bay to get to the NFC Championship? The Packers with a chance for revenge. Brett Favre with a chance to stick it to Green Bay for the third time in one season? I can picture it now. The Vikings get a week off from the head coach, then watch the Eagles and Packers win to then realize…Oh crap! We only have one week to prepare for Favre Revenge!!! The entire world would stop in Green Bay until the game was played. You can’t script what kind of story this would be.
Packers 27, Cardinals 24
- Deacon Touchback
Thursday, January 7, 2010
I have no good explanation for this...
Ok,
So I know I pulled a disappearing act after I took off for Phoenix. Do I have good reason for that? Yes. Is it really excusable? Not really. Do I wish I could have kept writing throughout this year? Heck yes. Will this ever happen again? I don't make promises.
There is no point in bothering everyone with the details of my absence from writing this blog. Basically, after a few weeks of not writing, I figured that it would be pointless to come back and keep making picks because the integrity of the picks from the ‘missed weeks’ would be compromised and figured that by the time the playoffs rolled around, I could just start fresh.
The fact remains (whether anyone cares or not) that I continued to participate in the weekly NFL picks pool that my friend runs. I could sit here and tell everyone that I went to jail, and used one phone call a week to make my picks for the pool for entertainment value, but that assumes people read this and/or care. Oh yeah, and there's that whole fabrication thing.
The truth is, I suppose that once I started to creep up into the top standings of the picks pool, part of me thought to myself ‘If I go back to writing the blog to make picks, is that going to mess with what I have going here and screw me out of potentially winning this thing?’ As we all can see by the large gap between posts, this was pretty much the case.
What is important, however, is that in the end I ended up winning that pool with an overall record of 186-70. Is there a way to verify this? Sure, but I will only provide that proof if I'm challenged to do so, because I’m not here to boast about winning the pool, or beating all of ESPN’s experts and its ‘ACCUSCORE’. (All true, by the way)
The point was to get back to the blog, writing, and being a source of information, reaction, and opinion not only for the playoffs, but for the time of the year when almost everyone (except us junkies) takes a break from the NFL: post-Super Bowl.
That’s the plan, at least.
So here I am, back to write for me and like 15 people who might read this.
For now.
How about that 2009 NFL season? It's a sad day to realize that it's behind us.
To sum it up before hopefully writing a small post tomorrow about the upcoming NFL playoffs, here are a five random shots and thoughts about the NFL regular season that we say goodbye to this weekend when the NFL Playoffs begin.
Chris Johnson – While he may not win the MVP award this season (I think it’s pretty obvious that it will be Peyton Manning, rightfully so) I had to start this off talking about CJ2K6 (which is now his new nickname for those who don’t know). What he was able to accomplish this season - setting the all-time NFL record for yards from scrimmage with 2,509 (eclipsing Marshall Faulk’s previous record), becoming the sixth player in league history to rush for over 2000 yards (2,006 to be exact), and mixing in his name with the rest of the league MVP candidates after helping the Tennessee Titans turn around their season to finish 8-8 after starting 0-6 – was truly remarkable. Now the guy wants to race Usain Bolt…Wow.
The Season of Undefeated Teams, Sort Of – For most of the 2009 regular season in the second half of the year, a lot of the talk was dominated by the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints potentially meeting in the Super Bowl with their undefeated seasons in tact...
Well...the Saints lasted until a Week 15 loss at home to Dallas, and have not won a game since (losing at home to Tampa Bay and in Carolina). It was a big story back in Week 15, but all of a sudden people forgot about the Saints because...
The Colts, however, saw their undefeated season end in a little bit of controversy. Up 15-10 in the third quarter against the New York Jets in Week 16, the Colts opted to take out their starters and rest them for the remainder of the game. Enter backup QB Curtis Painter. With a perfect season on the line, the world caught a glimpse of what the Indianapolis Colts would look like sans-Manning, and watched their perfect season end at home. Colt fans (and fans of football alike) were outraged that the Colts threw away a chance at history. Not only did their actions have an effect on their perfect season, but it allowed the New York Jets to essentially back their asses into the playoffs by getting two wins at the end of their season in meaningless games where their opponents brought much less than their 'A' games.
And so, the debate between chasing history or playing every game to win versus doing everything to enter the playoffs as strong as you can continues to be a subject of debate around the league. (Note: This will more than likely be a subject of discussion in the off-season because we will see just how these strategies employed by teams actually work out for them in the post-season)
The Unfortunate Passing of Chris Henry – On December 17, 2009 the NFL experienced tragedy when Cincinnati Bengals WR Chris Henry died after reportedly jumping out of his fiancée’s moving truck following a domestic dispute. The news was reported that Henry has suffered a life-threatening injury the previous night, and in the morning word was released that he was pronounced dead the following morning. Henry was 26 years old, and if anyone has been watching football in the last three weeks they know that inspired or not, the Cincinnati Bengals are not the same team without him.
Dude, My Head Hurts – One of the running themes this year seemed to be the increasing number of concussion cases across the league. It prompted the league to change its policy on how concussions are to be dealt with stating, “Once removed for the duration of a practice or game, the player should not be considered for return-to-football activities until he is fully asymptomatic, both at rest and after exertion, has a normal neurological examination, normal neuropsychological testing and has been cleared to return by both his team physician(s) and the independent neurological consultant.” The old standard, established in 2007, said a player should not be allowed to return to the same game if he lost consciousness. The list of players who suffered concussions in 2009 is a lengthy one, including Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Lewis, and Clinton Portis.
Troubles in Paradise – The NFL is never without it’s stories regarding teams that were up and then down, and vice versa. This year, there was more than a handful of noteworthy nose-dives and internal drama.
After a 6-0 start to the season, the Denver Broncos finished off the year 2-8 - watching the red hot San Diego Chargers fly by them in the AFC West standings - and missed the playoffs. It was by far the worst nose dive of any team in the NFL this season. Remember those images of Josh McDaniels fist pumping to the crowd when they beat New England in Week 5? This is the same guy that heading into a must-win game decided to bench two of his best weapons in the passing game (WR Brandon Marshall and TE Tony Scheffler) while another one (WR Eddie Royal) was missing the game with injury. Did anyone see any fist pumps last week?
Not too far off were the Jacksonville Jaguars, who managed to roll out 4 straight losses to end the year after being 7-5 and in control of their own destiny to make the playoffs. The Jaguars were probably the league’s toughest team to predict this year, and when the chips were on the table managed to choke, again. A lot of people speculate that there is a good chance that this will prompt the firing of head coach Jack del Rio. I'll see it when I believe it. Knowing this team, they will go ahead and spend their first draft pick on Tim Tebow. Stay tuned.
The New York Giants started off the season with five wins, but back then some may have pointed to the fact that all of those wins came against teams that had not won a game before facing the Giants. In the end, the G-men ended off the season 3-8, and finished 3rd in the NFC East division with an 8-8 record. The Giants capped their disappointing season with two embarrassing losses. The first came at home in the last game they will ever play in Giants’ Stadium (a 41-9 loss to Carolina). and the following week, the Giants lost on the road in Minnesota 44-7. They have since fired their defensive coordinator and they may not stop there.
Speaking of the Vikings, all things looked great in Minnesota early in the season until reports were coming out about a rift between head coach Brad Childress and QB Brett Favre. Basically, the report said that Favre was unhappy that Childress had wanted to take Favre out of their game at Carolina in Week 15, and that it was speculated that Favre had been checking out of run plays all year long ignoring the plays called by the coaches. So, after being in a position to possibly overtake the Number 1 seed in the NFC, two road losses in Carolina and Chicago in Weeks 15 and 16 ended that dream. As a result, the Vikings were in jeopardy of even losing the second seed and a bye in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Fortuantely, the Giants came to town and bent over like the town slut. As a result, the old man and his Vikings managed to earn a first round bye after Dallas beat Philadelphia in their Week 17 tilt for the NFC East title.
All in all, it was another great NFL regular season, and the playoffs should be just as good. Tomorrow I hope to do a quick write-up on some playoff storylines and picks for the weekend.
- Deacon Touchback
So I know I pulled a disappearing act after I took off for Phoenix. Do I have good reason for that? Yes. Is it really excusable? Not really. Do I wish I could have kept writing throughout this year? Heck yes. Will this ever happen again? I don't make promises.
There is no point in bothering everyone with the details of my absence from writing this blog. Basically, after a few weeks of not writing, I figured that it would be pointless to come back and keep making picks because the integrity of the picks from the ‘missed weeks’ would be compromised and figured that by the time the playoffs rolled around, I could just start fresh.
The fact remains (whether anyone cares or not) that I continued to participate in the weekly NFL picks pool that my friend runs. I could sit here and tell everyone that I went to jail, and used one phone call a week to make my picks for the pool for entertainment value, but that assumes people read this and/or care. Oh yeah, and there's that whole fabrication thing.
The truth is, I suppose that once I started to creep up into the top standings of the picks pool, part of me thought to myself ‘If I go back to writing the blog to make picks, is that going to mess with what I have going here and screw me out of potentially winning this thing?’ As we all can see by the large gap between posts, this was pretty much the case.
What is important, however, is that in the end I ended up winning that pool with an overall record of 186-70. Is there a way to verify this? Sure, but I will only provide that proof if I'm challenged to do so, because I’m not here to boast about winning the pool, or beating all of ESPN’s experts and its ‘ACCUSCORE’. (All true, by the way)
The point was to get back to the blog, writing, and being a source of information, reaction, and opinion not only for the playoffs, but for the time of the year when almost everyone (except us junkies) takes a break from the NFL: post-Super Bowl.
That’s the plan, at least.
So here I am, back to write for me and like 15 people who might read this.
For now.
How about that 2009 NFL season? It's a sad day to realize that it's behind us.
To sum it up before hopefully writing a small post tomorrow about the upcoming NFL playoffs, here are a five random shots and thoughts about the NFL regular season that we say goodbye to this weekend when the NFL Playoffs begin.
Chris Johnson – While he may not win the MVP award this season (I think it’s pretty obvious that it will be Peyton Manning, rightfully so) I had to start this off talking about CJ2K6 (which is now his new nickname for those who don’t know). What he was able to accomplish this season - setting the all-time NFL record for yards from scrimmage with 2,509 (eclipsing Marshall Faulk’s previous record), becoming the sixth player in league history to rush for over 2000 yards (2,006 to be exact), and mixing in his name with the rest of the league MVP candidates after helping the Tennessee Titans turn around their season to finish 8-8 after starting 0-6 – was truly remarkable. Now the guy wants to race Usain Bolt…Wow.
The Season of Undefeated Teams, Sort Of – For most of the 2009 regular season in the second half of the year, a lot of the talk was dominated by the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints potentially meeting in the Super Bowl with their undefeated seasons in tact...
Well...the Saints lasted until a Week 15 loss at home to Dallas, and have not won a game since (losing at home to Tampa Bay and in Carolina). It was a big story back in Week 15, but all of a sudden people forgot about the Saints because...
The Colts, however, saw their undefeated season end in a little bit of controversy. Up 15-10 in the third quarter against the New York Jets in Week 16, the Colts opted to take out their starters and rest them for the remainder of the game. Enter backup QB Curtis Painter. With a perfect season on the line, the world caught a glimpse of what the Indianapolis Colts would look like sans-Manning, and watched their perfect season end at home. Colt fans (and fans of football alike) were outraged that the Colts threw away a chance at history. Not only did their actions have an effect on their perfect season, but it allowed the New York Jets to essentially back their asses into the playoffs by getting two wins at the end of their season in meaningless games where their opponents brought much less than their 'A' games.
And so, the debate between chasing history or playing every game to win versus doing everything to enter the playoffs as strong as you can continues to be a subject of debate around the league. (Note: This will more than likely be a subject of discussion in the off-season because we will see just how these strategies employed by teams actually work out for them in the post-season)
The Unfortunate Passing of Chris Henry – On December 17, 2009 the NFL experienced tragedy when Cincinnati Bengals WR Chris Henry died after reportedly jumping out of his fiancée’s moving truck following a domestic dispute. The news was reported that Henry has suffered a life-threatening injury the previous night, and in the morning word was released that he was pronounced dead the following morning. Henry was 26 years old, and if anyone has been watching football in the last three weeks they know that inspired or not, the Cincinnati Bengals are not the same team without him.
Dude, My Head Hurts – One of the running themes this year seemed to be the increasing number of concussion cases across the league. It prompted the league to change its policy on how concussions are to be dealt with stating, “Once removed for the duration of a practice or game, the player should not be considered for return-to-football activities until he is fully asymptomatic, both at rest and after exertion, has a normal neurological examination, normal neuropsychological testing and has been cleared to return by both his team physician(s) and the independent neurological consultant.” The old standard, established in 2007, said a player should not be allowed to return to the same game if he lost consciousness. The list of players who suffered concussions in 2009 is a lengthy one, including Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Lewis, and Clinton Portis.
Troubles in Paradise – The NFL is never without it’s stories regarding teams that were up and then down, and vice versa. This year, there was more than a handful of noteworthy nose-dives and internal drama.
After a 6-0 start to the season, the Denver Broncos finished off the year 2-8 - watching the red hot San Diego Chargers fly by them in the AFC West standings - and missed the playoffs. It was by far the worst nose dive of any team in the NFL this season. Remember those images of Josh McDaniels fist pumping to the crowd when they beat New England in Week 5? This is the same guy that heading into a must-win game decided to bench two of his best weapons in the passing game (WR Brandon Marshall and TE Tony Scheffler) while another one (WR Eddie Royal) was missing the game with injury. Did anyone see any fist pumps last week?
Not too far off were the Jacksonville Jaguars, who managed to roll out 4 straight losses to end the year after being 7-5 and in control of their own destiny to make the playoffs. The Jaguars were probably the league’s toughest team to predict this year, and when the chips were on the table managed to choke, again. A lot of people speculate that there is a good chance that this will prompt the firing of head coach Jack del Rio. I'll see it when I believe it. Knowing this team, they will go ahead and spend their first draft pick on Tim Tebow. Stay tuned.
The New York Giants started off the season with five wins, but back then some may have pointed to the fact that all of those wins came against teams that had not won a game before facing the Giants. In the end, the G-men ended off the season 3-8, and finished 3rd in the NFC East division with an 8-8 record. The Giants capped their disappointing season with two embarrassing losses. The first came at home in the last game they will ever play in Giants’ Stadium (a 41-9 loss to Carolina). and the following week, the Giants lost on the road in Minnesota 44-7. They have since fired their defensive coordinator and they may not stop there.
Speaking of the Vikings, all things looked great in Minnesota early in the season until reports were coming out about a rift between head coach Brad Childress and QB Brett Favre. Basically, the report said that Favre was unhappy that Childress had wanted to take Favre out of their game at Carolina in Week 15, and that it was speculated that Favre had been checking out of run plays all year long ignoring the plays called by the coaches. So, after being in a position to possibly overtake the Number 1 seed in the NFC, two road losses in Carolina and Chicago in Weeks 15 and 16 ended that dream. As a result, the Vikings were in jeopardy of even losing the second seed and a bye in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Fortuantely, the Giants came to town and bent over like the town slut. As a result, the old man and his Vikings managed to earn a first round bye after Dallas beat Philadelphia in their Week 17 tilt for the NFC East title.
All in all, it was another great NFL regular season, and the playoffs should be just as good. Tomorrow I hope to do a quick write-up on some playoff storylines and picks for the weekend.
- Deacon Touchback
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Week 5 Picks
No Preachment this week and no quick write-ups for this week's game. That will resume next week. Unforunately, I didn't really have the time to do one up this week with too many things to get done before heading off to Phoenix for the long weekend. And yes, I'll be at the Houston/Arizona game this week.
Looks like the only thing consistent with the picks has been getting 4 wrong every week (Last week I went 10 of 14) but we'll see if anything changes this week.
Season Record (Through 4 weeks) : 46-16
Week 5 Picks (Winners in CAPS):
Cincinatti @ BALTIMORE
Cleveland @ BUFFALO
Washington @ CAROLINA
PITTSBURGH @ Detroit
DALLAS @ Kansas City
Oakland @ NY GIANTS
Tampa Bay @ PHILADELPHIA
MINNESOTA @ St. Louis
ATLANTA @ San Francisco
NEW ENGLAND @ Denver
Jacksonville @ SEATTLE
Houston @ ARIZONA
INDIANAPOLIS @ Tennessee
NY JETS @ Miami
Looks like the only thing consistent with the picks has been getting 4 wrong every week (Last week I went 10 of 14) but we'll see if anything changes this week.
Season Record (Through 4 weeks) : 46-16
Week 5 Picks (Winners in CAPS):
Cincinatti @ BALTIMORE
Cleveland @ BUFFALO
Washington @ CAROLINA
PITTSBURGH @ Detroit
DALLAS @ Kansas City
Oakland @ NY GIANTS
Tampa Bay @ PHILADELPHIA
MINNESOTA @ St. Louis
ATLANTA @ San Francisco
NEW ENGLAND @ Denver
Jacksonville @ SEATTLE
Houston @ ARIZONA
INDIANAPOLIS @ Tennessee
NY JETS @ Miami
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